Thursday 7.8.21: T.S. Elsa Evening Update

Good evening everyone, and welcome to readers coming from the UML Weather Center! The Weather Center site (which I often post to as a UML meteorology student) is down, so I’m sharing this post to the UML social media pages.

We are about to see some impact from Tropical Storm Elsa as it makes its way up the East Coast. Ahead of the storm, some showers (with embedded thunder also possible) are likely in the area this evening. On-and-off showers and thunderstorms are likely, before the main batch of rain moves into the area around sunrise tomorrow. Steady and heavy rain is likely after 5 am tomorrow, continuing for much of the day before ending by the early evening. Embedded thunderstorms are also possible.

Expect 2-4″ of rain over the next 24 hours or so. This may lead to flash flooding issues, especially in poor-drainage areas. The risk for flooding is exacerbated by the amount of rain we have had in the last week or so. Remember to never drive your vehicle into areas where water covers the road – turn around, don’t drown! Remember to move any sensitive belongings from your basements or ground floor, as the risk of flooded basements is prominent.

Rain is the primary hazard with Elsa, with wind being a potential secondary hazard. Significant wind is not expected, but with wind gusts likely peaking at 30-35 mph, some minor damage and isolated power outages are possible. Isolated tornadoes are possible in eastern and southern New England tomorrow morning and early afternoon, so keep a close eye on the weather and have a way to get warnings.

Any impacts should be ending by the evening tomorrow, as Elsa pulls away from the region.

I will have an update later tonight if necessary.
-Nathan

Thursday 7.1.21

Good morning!

Our heat wave has come to a crashing end, but expect very humid conditions to remain for a day or so. With skies turning cloudy today, along with rain likely in the afternoon (and especially the evening), expect a high around 79 today, with a west wind around 5-10 mph. Tonight will feature rain, with a low around 62, and a south wind around 5 mph, turning to the northeast at 5-10 mph.

We have a relatively unusual situation for this time of the year on our hands: a midnight high for Friday! The official high for tomorrow will probably be in the upper 60s to near 70 at midnight tonight, but for practical purposes, your daytime high will be around 62 at sunrise, with temperatures falling into the upper 50s by midday and then just staying there. Expect showers at times, with a northeast wind of 5-15 mph. Showers are likely Friday night, with a low around 54, and a northeast wind of 5-10 mph.

weather 2021-07-01.001
While the weekend won’t be 100% junk like Memorial Day weekend was, the Fourth of July weekend won’t be that far off, as we will be experiencing essentially a very weak Nor’Easter. We will now be 0-for-2 in terms of weather on big summer holiday weekends. (What will Labor Day weekend bring us?) Saturday will be even worse than Friday in some regards: with a cold northeast wind off the Gulf of Maine, expect a high around 57 Saturday. Scattered showers will be around, but even though it likely won’t be a washout, it will be cold, damp, and cloudy throughout.

There is a continuing chance of showers Saturday night, with a low around 54. Conditions improve somewhat Sunday, as right now it looks like we’ll get to around 70 degrees with at least partial sunshine. There will still be lots of clouds and some showers, as the low pressure system inches its way out of our region, but this is still pretty terrible for the Fourth of July. We finally see real improvement Sunday night, as clouds decrease with a low around 55, and especially Monday, which will be mostly sunny and 82. The real saving grace here is that Monday is the official holiday for the Fourth of July, so many of you will have the day off. Expect highs to approach the 90-degree mark once again by Tuesday.

weather 2021-07-01.002

Have a great day!
-Nathan

6.30.21 – Severe Weather Update 1 (11:30 AM)

The National Weather Service has a relatively rare Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level 3 out of 5) listed for our area. Strong to severe storms are likely this evening, especially after 5 pm. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, along with heavy rain, hail, and lightning. I’m actually off work somehow, so I’ll have updates as the afternoon and evening progresses on the social media pages.

Monday 6.28.21

Good morning!

With mostly sunny skies, expect a high around 98 today, with a southwest wind of 5-10 mph, gusting up to 25 mph at times. With very high temperatures approaching 100 and very humid conditions with dew points over 70, heat index values will break the 100-degree line, with values up to 103 expected each of the next three days; please make sure to stay hydrated and cool, and know the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. The handy graphic below from the National Weather Service has some very valuable information. (Speaking of the National Weather Service, there is – unsurprisingly – a heat advisory in effect for today, tomorrow, and Wednesday.)

Heat Stroke Visual

Tonight will be mostly clear, with a low around 76, and a southwest wind around 5 mph. Tuesday will be mostly sunny and 98, with heat index values up to 103, and a west wind around 5 mph. Tuesday night will be partly cloudy and 73, with a slight chance of a thunderstorm early, and a light west wind. Note that there is an incredibly small chance of an isolated and brief shower or storm developing Tuesday afternoon; the chance is so low that it’s not worth putting on the graphic.

weather 2021-06-28.001

Wednesday will be mostly sunny and 97, with heat index values up to 103. Like Tuesday afternoon, there is a very remote chance of a quick shower or storm Wednesday afternoon, but it was much too low to warrant a mention on the graphic. There is a considerably higher chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night, though; expect mostly cloudy skies with a low around 71.

Thursday will be mostly cloudy and 84, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Expect a continuing chance of showers and storms Thursday night, with a low around 65 and mostly cloudy skies. Friday will be mostly cloudy and 71, with a chance of showers.

weather 2021-06-28.002

Have a great day and stay cool!
-Nathan

Friday 6.18.21

Good morning!

With mostly sunny skies, expect a high around 84 today, with a southwest wind around 5 mph. Tonight will have increasing clouds, with a low around 64, a southwest wind around 5 mph, and a chance of showers during the late overnight hours.

Tomorrow will have partly sunny skies, with a high around 86. There is a chance of showers in the morning, and a chance of thunderstorms in the evening; the midday hours and much of the afternoon will likely be dry. In the evening, some storms may be strong to severe with strong wind gusts, hail, lightning, and heavy rain possible. Expect a southwest wind around 5 mph, with much higher gusts possible in evening thunderstorms. The thunderstorm chance will continue until around midnight, after which decreasing clouds can be expected; expect a low around 63 Saturday night, with a southwest wind around 5 mph.

weather 2021-06-18.001

Sunday will be sunny and 89; Sunday night will be clear and 64. Monday will be 92 and mostly sunny; Monday night will be mostly clear and 70. There is a chance of afternoon thunderstorms Tuesday, along with increasing clouds and a high around 84.

weather 2021-06-18.002

Have a great day!
-Nathan

Friday 6.4.21

Good morning!

With mostly cloudy skies, expect a high around 88 today, with a southwest wind of 5-10 mph. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon; the latest guidance has honed in on a line of showers and storms forming this afternoon. Some showers may form ahead of the line, but guidance is in agreement on the back end of the storms exiting the Dracut area by 6 pm. Outdoor graduations look safe as a result; however, you may want to bring a towel, so your rear end doesn’t get soaked if the seats are wet. We will be near the northern edge of the line, so it’s not impossible that we miss the rain entirely. In any case, it will be a nice night for graduations with decreasing clouds, as well as temperatures falling from the mid 70s to the upper 60s. Congrats to the Class of 2021!

Expect decreasing clouds to continue overnight, with a low around 61, and a southwest wind around 5 mph. Saturday is the first day of an extended stretch of heat, with a high around 88, and a southwest wind of 5-15 mph. Saturday night will be mostly clear and 69, with a west-southwest wind of 5-10 mph.

weather 2021-06-04.001

Sunday will crank up the heat further, with sunny skies and a high around 93. Sunday night will be clear and 71. Expect a high around 95 Monday with sunny skies, and a low of 72 Monday night with mostly clear skies. Tuesday will probably be the last day of the big heat, with a high around 97 as well as mostly sunny skies. Wednesday will likely be in the 80s, and the rest of the week will likely be in the 70s. Wednesday also looks like the next potential chance of any rain after today.

weather 2021-06-04.002

Have a great day!
-Nathan

Tuesday 6.1.21

Good morning!

With partly cloudy skies, expect a high around 77 today, with a west wind around 5 mph. Tonight will be mostly clear and 51, with a calm wind.

Wednesday will be mostly sunny and 82, with a southwest wind around 5 mph. Wednesday night will have increasing clouds, a low around 56, and a southwest wind around 5 mph.

weather 2021-06-01.001Some showers are likely Thursday, especially in the afternoon and evening; expect a high around 73 with mostly cloudy skies. Showers are likely Thursday night, with a low around 61. Friday will be warmer with a high around 80, but expect mostly cloudy skies and a chance of some showers throughout the day. There are numerous outdoor high school graduations in the area set for Friday, so the weather Friday night will be very important. It’s too early to make a call in any direction – but the trends look good with a decreasing shower chance by sunset. If you are worried about that, I will tell you that my own high school graduation three years ago tonight – June 1, 2018 – came down to the wire in terms of rain chances and it ended up being a beautiful night. I’ll keep an eye on things throughout the week, though.

Friday night will have decreasing clouds, with a low around 61. Expect a high around 87 Saturday with mostly sunny skies; though it is possible we reach the 90 degree mark, I don’t have enough confidence in that outcome yet to put it on the 5-day forecast. Sunday and Monday do look extremely likely to be in the 90s though as the heat builds.

weather 2021-06-01.002

On a historical note, today is the 10-year anniversary of the EF-3 Springfield/Monson tornado in western Massachusetts, which was one of the longest track tornadoes in state history, occurring on a very active severe weather day that produced  three other tornadoes in the state in the evening. While the impact of that day was fairly limited here in northeast Massachusetts, the sheer explosiveness of the day’s atmosphere was made obvious to us very early, as a supercell thunderstorm formed around 8:30 am producing large hail in Dracut. For those of you interested in reading more about the June 1, 2011 Springfield/Monson tornado, the National Weather Service has posted a great piece detailing what happened at https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/272ead74dfe348a4a0f10b3b619c9003.

Have a great day!
-Nathan

Thursday 5/27/21 Evening

Good evening!

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the forecast for Memorial Day weekend has gone from bad to much, much worse. I thought what I had to write yesterday was garbage. This is next-level garbage.

Expect a morning low of 49 and a daytime high of 64 for Friday, with a generally calm wind during the day, and mostly cloudy skies. There will be an increasing chance of rain in the afternoon as a low pressure system approaches the area. Rain is now expected throughout Friday night and most of Saturday morning, before gradually giving way to a chance of showers Saturday afternoon. Expect a night low of 43 Friday night and a daytime high of just 51 on Saturday, with cloudy skies and a northeast wind of 5-15 mph.

weather 2021-05-27.001

Saturday night and Sunday will be a bit better, but not much: a low of 43 and a high around 53, with mostly cloudy skies throughout, along with a chance of showers developing again Sunday evening and a continued northeast wind. Rain is possible Sunday night, with a low around 46 and mostly cloudy skies.

Some showers may remain Monday morning, but the afternoon may actually be decent for Memorial Day proper, with a high around 68 projected along with mostly cloudy skies. There is a wider range in temperature possibilities for Monday: a third straight day in the 50s is not fully out of the question, but we also could break into the 70s. At this time, upper 60s to near 70 is the most probable scenario for Monday. Conditions finally stabilize by Monday night and Tuesday, with decreasing clouds and a low of 49 Monday night giving way to mostly sunny skies for Tuesday, with a high around 78. It’s almost like this pattern is planned to provide as crappy a long weekend as possible. Guess we’ll all have to roll with the punches. Again, if any of this changes significantly, I’ll update the forecast.

weather 2021-05-27.002

Have a great night!
-Nathan

Wednesday 5/26/21

Good morning!!

With mostly sunny skies, expect a high around 92 today, with a southwest wind of 5-15 mph. While strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to the north and west during the afternoon and evening hours, precipitation is not expected in our area before 8 pm.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy; showers and thunderstorms are likely after 8 pm, with severe storms possible in the first – and primary – line of storms, which will move through between 8 pm and midnight. An additional batch of showers and sub-severe storms is likely before 3 am, by which all precipitation should end. Winds will be southwest at 5-15 mph (with much higher gusts possible in thunderstorms), flipping to the west at 5-10 mph late.

Thursday will be mostly sunny and 80, with a northwest wind at 5-15 mph. Thursday night will be mostly clear and 46, with a north wind of 5-10 mph.

weather 2021-05-26.001

Friday will kick off what is looking to be a crappy Memorial Day weekend. Friday’s high will be around 64, with increasing clouds and a chance of afternoon showers. A system will pass nearby, delivering useful rain to areas south of the Mass Pike, but we will be on the northern cutoff of the system; so we could end up with very little rain Friday afternoon and night, or we could end up with a beneficial rainfall. Regardless, expect lots of clouds and cool conditions for Friday. The Friday night low will be 44, with a continued chance of showers.

Any showers should end by early Saturday morning, giving way to mostly cloudy skies, with a high around 61. Saturday night will be partly cloudy and 45, and Sunday will be partly cloudy and 63. However, it is possible, depending on the extent of clouds, that we may not even reach 60 degrees either weekend day, as an northeasterly wind off the Gulf of Maine dominates the long weekend. Conditions may improve Monday, as it’s possible we get back into the 70s with more sun, but a lot of the newer guidance is instead projecting another crappy day in the upper 50s to low 60s. In any case, it doesn’t look like a great weekend, with the main saving grace being it doesn’t look particularly rainy – just cool and cloudy. And since this is New England, Tuesday looks nice, because that’s the first day after the long weekend. I’ll be sure to update this forecast, as conditions may shift regarding precipitation this weekend.

weather 2021-05-26.002

Have a great day!
-Nathan

Friday Evening 5.21.21

Good evening!

Expect a low around 64 tonight, with mostly cloudy skies. Saturday will be partly sunny, with a high around 90, with a slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Saturday night will have decreasing clouds, with a low around 63. Sunday will be mostly sunny and 91, with a slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm again. Expect winds generally westerly around 5 mph throughout the period (ranging from more southwesterly tomorrow to more of a west-northwest direction by Sunday).

Have a good night!
-Nathan