Monday 11/23/20

Good morning!

With rain today, expect a high around 53, with a south wind turning northwest at 5-15 mph, and potential gusts up to 35 mph. Tonight will have clearing skies, with a low around 29, a northwest wind of 5-15 mph, and potential gusts up to 35 mph. Tuesday will be mostly sunny and 40, with a northwest wind of 5-15 mph, and potential gusts up to 25 mph. Tuesday night will be partly cloudy and 18, with a light northwest wind.

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Wednesday will be cloudy and 42. Wednesday night will be cloudy and 38, with a chance of rain late. Thanksgiving Thursday will be cloudy and 50, with rain likely – the timing on this still needs to be worked out. Thursday night will be 37, with a chance of rain, followed by mostly cloudy skies. Friday will be mostly cloudy and 54.weather 2020-11-23.002

Have a great day!
-Nathan

Thursday 11/12/20 Evening

Good evening!

With cloudy skies, expect a low around 37, with a light northeast wind. Friday will have rain at times, with a high around 45, and a northeast wind around 5 mph. Friday night will have rain early, followed by decreasing clouds, with a low around 33, and a northeast wind around 5 mph, flipping to the northwest. Saturday will be mostly sunny and 49; Saturday night will be 25 and mostly clear.

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Going forward, Sunday will have increasing clouds, with a high around 54 and a chance of afternoon showers. Showers are possible Sunday night as well, with a low around 40 and mostly cloudy skies. Monday will have a high around 52, with skies turning mostly sunny. Monday night will be mostly clear and 32; Tuesday will be mostly sunny and 45.

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Have a great night!
-Nathan

Monday 11/9/20

Good morning!

With sunny skies, expect a high around 77 today, with a calm wind. Tonight will be clear and 40, with a calm wind. Tuesday will be sunny and 79, with a southwest wind around 5 mph. Tuesday night will feature increasing clouds, with a low around 55, and a southwest wind around 5 mph.

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Wednesday will be partly sunny to mostly cloudy with a high around 73, along with a chance of afternoon showers. Showers are likely overnight Wednesday and early Thursday, with a low around 61. Showers are likely through the morning and potentially into the early afternoon Thursday, with a high around 65, and skies otherwise being mostly cloudy. Thursday night will be partly cloudy and 39, and Friday will be mostly sunny and 53.

Friday will mark our first seasonable daytime high in over a week by that point (the average high for November 9 is 53 degrees, and for this Friday, November 13, the average high is 52). Wednesday should mark our 7th straight day at or above 70 degrees, and Thursday will also have a well above normal high temperature. Seasonable temperatures are favored to continue into the weekend and next week, with neither significantly warm nor significantly cool conditions expected at this time.

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Have a great day!
-Nathan

Saturday 11/7/20

Good morning!

With sunny skies, expect a high around 78 today, with a west wind around 5 mph. Tonight will be mostly clear and 46, with a light west wind. Sunday will be sunny and 72, with a light northwest wind. Sunday night will be mostly clear and 42, with a calm wind.

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The warm weather will continue for several more days, throughout the forecast period. As high temperatures have consistently overshot all guidance, I continue to adjust the forecast temperatures to account for this (much like what I did yesterday except now with more data to back me up; this explains my 78 degree forecast for today and my 72 degree forecast for tomorrow). Monday will be sunny and 75, Monday night will be mostly clear and 46, Tuesday will be sunny and 75, Tuesday night will have increasing clouds and a low of 56, and Wednesday will have a chance of showers, mostly cloudy skies, and a high around 71.

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Have a great day!
-Nathan

Friday 11/6/20

Good morning!

With decreasing clouds giving way to mostly sunny skies, expect a morning low of 51 and a high around 71, with a southwest wind around 5 mph. Tonight will be mostly clear and 47, with a west wind around 5 mph. Saturday will be sunny and 74, with a west wind around 5 mph. Saturday night will be mostly clear and 43, with a light west wind.

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Partly cloudy to mostly clear nights in the middle 40s, and sunny to mostly sunny days with highs in the low to potentially middle 70s, are the theme through Tuesday. (I have adjusted forecasts upward given the way Thursday played out, as my original forecast of 68 for Thursday was more closely matched to guidance and still was too low. The pattern is similar through Tuesday so I have decided to place all 5 days in the 70s.) Sunday will be sunny and 70; Sunday night will be partly cloudy and 43; Monday will be mostly sunny and 72; Monday night will be partly cloudy and 47; and Tuesday will be mostly sunny and 73.weather 2020-11-06.002

Enjoy the weekend, but be sure to mask up and practice physical distancing given the ongoing COVID spike. It’ll be a great weekend for outdoor activities!
-Nathan

Thursday 11/5/20

Good morning!

Today is just the first day out of what will likely be a 7 day stretch of very warm weather With sunny skies, expect a high around 68, with a southwest wind of 5-10 mph, and potential gusts up to 25 mph. Tonight will be partly cloudy and 48, with a southwest wind around 5 mph. Friday will be mostly sunny and 70, with a southwest wind of 5-10 mph. Friday night will be mostly clear and 47, with a west wind of 5-10 mph.

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It’s not uncommon to get a day or two approaching 70 degrees in November. Not easy to do, but always possible. What is uncommon, though, is seven straight days around the 70 degree mark, and that is what we will be getting. Saturday will be sunny and 71; Saturday night will be mostly clear and 43; Sunday will be mostly sunny and 69; Sunday night will be partly cloudy and 44; Monday will be mostly sunny and 70. A high somewhere near 70 degrees is also likely Tuesday, and at an early glance next Wednesday, we will likely be in the upper 60s as we have our next chance of showers. This stretch of weather is remarkable: every day for the next seven days, we will have a shot at 70 degrees, it’s November, and the next six days should be dry with lots of sunshine. Cooler but still seasonably warm temperatures are favored beyond that.
weather 2020-11-05.002

Have a great day!
-Nathan

Monday 11/2/20

Good morning!

With partly sunny skies, expect a high around 42 today, with strong winds out of the west at 15-25 mph, along with gusts up to 50 mph. There is also a slight chance of flurries or sprinkles. Tonight will have a low around 30, with partly cloudy skies, a west wind of 10-15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, and a chance of flurries. Tuesday will be mostly sunny and 41, with a chance of morning flurries, along with a northwest wind of 10-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. Tuesday night will be mostly clear and 23, with a northwest wind of 5-10 mph.

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Tuesday will be the last unseasonably cool day for a while. Wednesday will be a transition day, with a high around 51 along with mostly sunny skies. Wednesday night will be clear and 38. Thursday will be the first day in a likely extended stretch of warm days, with sunny skies and a high around 65. Thursday night will be partly cloudy and 47; Friday will be mostly sunny and 67. Sunny skies and warm high temperatures continue this weekend, as we will have a shot at 70 degrees both weekend days. At the very least, highs in the 60s are favored through at least the middle of next week.

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Have a great day!
-Nathan

Thursday 10/29/20 AM Update

Good morning!

With cloudy skies and rain this afternoon and evening, expect a high around 46, with a calm wind. Expect somewhere around 1″ of rain today and tonight, with a low around 31, a north wind of 5-15 mph overnight, and rain changing over to snow late.

Anywhere from a coating to 3″ of snow is possible tomorrow morning, with accumulation likely done by late morning and all precipitation done early in the afternoon. I think we’ll be somewhere in the neighborhood of an inch or two of snow. In any instance, take it slow on the roads tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow will have a high around 37, with skies otherwise beginning to clear toward the later stages of the afternoon, along with a north wind of 5-15 mph. Friday night will turn clear and cold, with a low around 20, and a light northwest wind.

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Going into the weekend, Saturday will be sunny and 43, with a light wind. For those who do partake in Halloween activities, you’ll want to wear warm layers, a face covering, and partake in social distancing as temperatures will be in the 30s during the evening with the wind staying light. Saturday night will be mostly clear and 26. We start off November with increasing clouds Sunday, along with a chance of afternoon showers and a high around 54. Showers end early Sunday night, with a low around 32 and partly cloudy skies. Monday will be mostly sunny with a high around 42. Going slightly outside of the five-day window, Monday night and Tuesday look to be very cold with a low near the 20 degree mark and highs in the middle 30s favored at this point. Things then warm up considerably toward the later stages of next week, with highs in the 60s a possibility next Thursday and Friday depending on how things play out after a day in the 50s Wednesday.

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Have a great day!
-Nathan

Wednesday 10/28/20

Good morning!

With rain showers this morning followed by cloudy skies, expect a high around 49 today, with a calm wind. Tonight will be mostly cloudy and 38, with a calm wind. Thursday will be cloudy and 47, with rain in the afternoon and a calm wind. Thursday night will feature heavy rain at times, with a low around 32, and a north wind of 5-15 mph. Rain will mix with snow late, with a period of accumulating snow likely Friday morning starting just before sunrise, flipping back to rain by late morning. Expect total snowfall of a coating to 2″, and total rainfall of 1″ to 2″. This would be the first accumulating October snowfall since 2011 (more details at the end of this post).

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All precipitation should end by early afternoon Friday, giving way to gradually decreasing clouds before sunset. Friday will be a remarkably cold day, with a high only around 37, along with a north wind of 5-15 mph, gradually calming during the evening. Friday night will be mainly clear, with a low around 21. Saturday will be sunny but cold for Halloween standards, with a high around 43. For those who do partake in Halloween activities, you’ll want to wear warm layers, a face covering, and partake in social distancing as temperatures will be in the 30s during the evening. The good news for Halloween is that wind should be calm or light. Please be responsible everyone; COVID cases are spiking right now and I realize the weather is less than ideal for gathering outdoors, but we’ve had worse weather on Halloween. Saturday night will have a low around 27, with mostly clear skies along with our “fall back” time change to begin the month of November. Sunday will have skies turning mostly cloudy, with a high around 54, along with a chance of afternoon showers.

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Here’s a footnote on snow in October: If snow does indeed accumulate, this will be the first time we have seen accumulating snow in October since 2011, when 8.5″ of snow fell incidentally enough on the night of October 29 and morning of October 30. This would also be the fourth time the first snowfall has taken place in October in the last ten years; in addition to 2011-12 as noted, the first snowfalls of 2015-16 and 2018-19 took place in October (October 18, 2015 and October 27, 2018; both non-accumulating trace snowfalls). Incidentally enough, 2011-12 and 2015-16 ended up with well below average snowfall, and 2018-19 was an average winter for snowfall. That means absolutely nothing in relation to this winter, but is an interesting note.

Have a great day!
-Nathan

Monday 10/26/20

Good morning!

With a morning low of 38, expect mainly cloudy skies today, along with a high of 51, a chance of rain showers, and a light east wind. Monday night will be cloudy and 45, with a chance of rain showers and a calm wind. Tuesday will be 53 and mostly cloudy, with a northwest wind around 5 mph. Tuesday night will be partly cloudy and 34, with a light north wind.

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Wednesday looks to be the pick of the workweek, with partly cloudy skies and a high around 54. Wednesday night will be partly cloudy and 39. Thursday will be mostly cloudy and 52, with a chance of rain, especially in the afternoon. Thursday night will be mostly cloudy and 33, with a chance of rain, perhaps mixed with snow late. Friday will be mostly cloudy with a high of 41, along with a chance of rain and snow in the morning. At this time, accumulating snow is very unlikely. Going beyond that, skies clear up Friday afternoon and evening, with a low well in to the 20s likely for Saturday morning and highs in the 40s for Saturday.

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Have a great day!
-Nathan