Much Cooler Today; Low Pressure To Bring Much-Needed Rain

Good Thursday morning!

Many locations across New England achieved a heat wave yesterday, and virtually every location in New Hampshire hit 90 degrees, except Mt. Washington and a few isolated outliers. Even some locations at lower elevations *north* of Mount Washington hit 90. But that will not be the same today, with an area of weak low pressure riding up the coast. Despite the weakness of the storm, it is packing a ton of moisture with it, which will be the guide for the forecast.

Today will be cloudy for much of the day, but not before the already-warm temps in place allow temperatures to climb a couple degrees to the low 70s in northern Maine, mid 70s in central Maine, and upper 70s and low 80s just about everywhere else in New England, including the coast.

Dewpoints will fall in Northern New England to mainly the 50s through today; with some gradual drop through the 60s in northern SNE; southern SNE will have to wait the longest for relief – tomorrow afternoon they are finally down to the mid 60s.

The main forecast feature is that area of low pressure, with its center set to approach Nantucket tomorrow morning. However, precipitation will start prior to that; in far southern New England, precip from the low will begin early this afternoon or maybe even late this morning. Precipitation will spread over New England by mid to late evening, excluding eastern/northern Maine which may have to wait a bit longer, into the early overnight hours. Rain will be heavy at times, and with high precipitable water values (PWATs) in place, any stronger shower or thunderstorm may put out very heavy rain. Precipitation will leave southern New England by Friday evening, and will leave the six New England states early Saturday morning. Winds will generally be out of the northeast with the storm, making it the first Nor’easter of 2015-2016.

Virtually all in New England will see over 1″ precipitation, with many seeing 2″ and perhaps up to 3″ possible in spots.

There will be a risk of some embedded thunderstorms this evening, especially across southern New England. This is the only real concern for gusty winds, but no severe weather is currently anticipated.

Isolated flooding may be possible especially in thunderstorms, with the previously-noted high PWATs. Do not drive your vehicle where water covers the road.

gfs_pwat_neng_6

(GFS model PWATs at 2 AM Friday, around the peak of the storm. Most of New England will have high PWATs, with extremely heavy rain possible in the yellow and red areas where PWATs will be highest. Credit: WeatherBell)

For tonight’s Patriots game, rain will be the key, with temps staying fairly consistent, in the upper 60s to around 70 throughout the game. While it may be inconvenient for fans, coaches, and officials, the Pats do well in this kind of rainy weather, as evidenced by the last time they played a game that counted for something at home. (Despite the controversy about that game, it was very warm and a squall line passed through mid-game and during play. We know their track record during other rainy days, too.) I don’t think the fans will mind, though, considering Brady will be playing and that is all everyone cares about. Some thunderstorms can’t be ruled out during the game; if thunder/lightning does occur at or in the vicinity of Gillette Stadium, I hope the NFL and the Patriots make the correct decision to stop play and temporarily evacuate the stands.

With that said, have a good day and GO PATS!

-Nathan

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