Back this morning with an update on today’s multi-hazard event.
(Radar as of 5:38 AM)
Expect a widespread 1-3″ south of the Mass Pike, and 2-5″ north of the Pike, with locally higher amounts throughout Northern New England; expect widespread totals of at least 3″ from about the MA/NH border north, as part of the range aforementioned. The heaviest rain will be from now through midday, but heavy rain is possible throughout the day, particularly in northern New England where widespread rain has been ongoing since yesterday evening and will throughout the afternoon. Urban flooding will likely become an issue, along with low-lying and poor drainage issues. There could also be issues with the faster-responding small streams and small rivers. Flash flooding is certainly a possibility this morning with widespread very heavy rain. For the majority of southern New England, most of this stuff will wrap up by the early to mid afternoon hours, with less widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms (see below) that would still likely produce heavy rain, due to high PWATs in place. Through Northern New England, the rain should gradually shut down through the afternoon and evening. Areal flood watches are in effect: (the lighter green in eastern New York and southwest Vermont is an areal flood advisory)
There is a *very limited* severe weather threat today, with the primary hazard being damaging winds, in two segments: this morning and this afternoon. Limited instability should keep the threat down in both cases; however, a brief damaging wind event cannot be ruled out in any stronger convection this morning, and gusty winds to 40 mph would be more likely in most convection. In Southern New England this afternoon looks interesting, with the cold front passing through; still not expecting much instability, but it will be slightly more favorable; again, low chance of a severe wind report even with favorable shear, and with high helicities, an isolated brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out — but again, this is unlikely; the more likely scenario is that some stronger cells see 40 mph gusts. Still bears watching, however.
Throughout much of the day, not much of an issue, only slightly windy: onshore 10-20 mph, gusts to 25 mph, higher in strong convective showers and thunderstorms as noted. This evening, it could get windier near the coast as the front moves through; 20-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible into the overnight, with sustained winds increasing tomorrow – more on that this afternoon.
Expect minor coastal flooding along parts of the south coast of Massachusetts/Rhode Island, and minor splashover along the NH/ME coast; a coastal flood advisory is in effect for south coastal MA and RI, and a coastal flood statement for NH/Maine up to near Portland. Beyond today, a coastal flood watch is in effect for the NH and Maine coasts to Portland, for possible minor to moderate coastal flooding tomorrow.
Have a great Wednesday, rainy as it is!