An atmospheric “squeeze play”, as called by the NWS Taunton technical discussion from 4:17 AM this morning, will rule over today’s weather. However, it should really only significantly impact the weather in southern New England. There is an area of high pressure to our north, and an offshore front to the southeast of New England, which has kept showers going in southeast New England. Throughout the day, the rain chance will move northwest; however, dry air will likely keep it from getting too far. Some areas may see 1-2 inches of rain, particularly Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard but north of the Mass Pike doesn’t stand much of a chance of seeing more than a quarter inch. Expect scattered showers between the Mass Pike and maybe near the MA/NH border. Much of Western and Northern New England don’t stand much of a chance, and the coast would be the most likely place to see any rain in NH or ME. However, expect widespread showers in southeast New England.
Today will be quite blustery, 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph for most; perhaps slightly higher in the higher elevations, and definitely windier along the SNE coast; 20-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph for most of the east coastal parts; south coastal parts plus the MA/RI islands and especially Cape Cod may see 25-35 mph, gusting to 50; NWS Taunton has a wind advisory out. Additionally, the Maine coast will be similar to the rest of the region: 10-20 mph, gusting to 30.
Today looks to be at the very least, a cool and gray day for most of southern New England, if not rainy, and in northern New England, expect to be in a mix of sun and clouds for a large portion of today. High temperatures throughout New England will be 48-56.
Coastal flooding will also become a problem in some spots, and there is a coastal flood advisory in eastern MA and a coastal flood statement for the NH coast and far southwest Maine; this is for the 3 PM high tide.
As for Joaquin, the trend in the past 24 hours has been just about solidified: its closest pass will be several hundred miles offshore of Nantucket early Tuesday morning. Looks like an offshore storm, thankfully; we are not 100% out of the water but it’s looking more and more so that it will go safely offshore. I’m not sounding the all clear either, but I would say it is very likely we get away with mainly just high seas.
Have a great Friday!