A Windy Rainstorm

Good evening!

This special blog post will detail the hazards involved with the windy rainstorm headed our way.

Timing

Rain will move into western New England around noon tomorrow and overspread the region by mid-late evening. The height of the storm, also with the strongest winds will be overnight Wednesday night, with rain tapering off to scattered showers by midday Thursday.

Rain

This will be the main story here. A messy commute will exist Wednesday evening and Thursday morning; when all is set and done, expect widespread periods of heavy rain and consistent steady rain, ultimately leading to a widespread 0.75 inch to 1.5 inches of rain, with some localized spots likely to see 1.5 to 2″ of rain (an isolated higher reading is not fully out of the question). The heaviest rain will occur overnight Wednesday night into the Thursday morning commute; some localized ponding of water is possible.

Wind

With very strong winds aloft, some of this will mix down to the surface; expect south-southeast based winds with widespread gusts to 40 mph and localized gusts to 60 mph possible, especially in heavier showers and embedded thunderstorms, as well as near the coast; strongest winds overnight Wednesday night into the Thursday morning commute. This will likely lead to isolated downed limbs, etc., the normal stuff with strong winds, along with difficulty driving high profile vehicles.

Severe

With elevated instability over southern New England during the Thursday morning commute, along with strong shear and helicity down to the low levels, an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out early Thursday, with damaging winds being the primary hazard; helicity values may however support an isolated tornado. That is not expected at this point, though, due to the rare nature of such events in these types of setups*; limited instability is a primary factor to limit severe.

*It has happened, though; don’t let your guard down Thursday morning, but I don’t think any severe weather is likely. More likely, an embedded thunderstorm or two would bring isolated higher wind gusts.

Coastal Flooding

With the recent full moon, this low pressure and strong S-SE winds, some coastal flooding is to be expected. Advisories are out for the SNE coast, and a coastal flood watch is out for parts of the downeast Maine coast.

Another update tomorrow morning. Have a great evening!

-Nathan

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