Very Warm Today; Chance of Severe Weather to Start March

Good morning!

Under mostly cloudy skies, expect highs in the mid to perhaps upper 60s.

Severe weather is possible today. First, some scattered showers are moving through as we speak; these aren’t any risk in terms of severe weather. The more spicy severe weather risk comes during the midday hours, when widespread showers and storms move through; while instability and most other factors are awful through the entire day, there is high shear and a lot of low level helicity, meaning that there could be some damaging winds, and potentially an isolated tornado. More showers and storms are possible this evening, and the same story goes there.
There is a significant bust factor due to the said instability, among other limiting factors. Most likely, we will need to rely on showers and storms that form to the southwest making it here due to the near complete lack of instability, as showers and storms that form in our area will be not common. HOWEVER, if we break into a little bit of sun, not only is someone probably touching 70 degrees, but instability goes up and the severe risk goes up.

High shear/low CAPE situations like these can produce sneaky damaging winds and isolated tornadoes; one such case with a line of showers last summer dropped an overnight EF-1 tornado in Concord, MA, despite the absolute lack of thunder/lightning. Of course, lightning will be a threat to a certain extent today, but don’t expect frequent strikes. High shear/low CAPE situations also have a thing for not panning out. In short, keep an eye on the weather today; pay attention closely to TV media updates and National Weather Service warnings, especially if you see a severe thunderstorm warning mentioning the possibility of a brief tornado: it is possible that the storm may spin up a tornado that could come and go before any tornado warning is issued. This has happened numerous times in the past several years, including just last Saturday in Conway, MA where there was no tornado warning at all.

Have a good day!

-Nathan

Published by Nathan Coram

Hello! I'm Nathan Coram, a 19 year old meteorology student and weather geek, and am going into my junior year at UMass Lowell as a meteorology major. I am the current Vice President of the UML American Meteorological Society Local Student Chapter. Prior to at UML, I attended the Dracut school system for my K-12 years, having graduated from Dracut High in 2018. I first got into weather with the December 2008 ice storm, which knocked out my electricity for 4 days. I had no idea how it could be raining and becoming ice immediately, and how rain can knock out power. (Now I do - warm layer aloft, cold air at surface). But I didn't really get into it until the heat of July 2010 and specifically a few severe weather events during that month, followed by the year 2011, which featured several high profile weather events. Since then I have had a growing interest, and am hoping to make it into the meteorology field, preferably with NOAA/NWS. But for now, I'm blogging here, helping with the UML Weather Center social media, and tweeting about the weather on my own account as well. Thanks for visiting!

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