Mostly Sunny Sunday, Major Storm Tuesday

Good morning!

For today, expect mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 20s, along with northwest winds at 5-15 mph gusting to 20-35 mph.

Now to our next significant subject: a major snowstorm is expected for Tuesday. I’ll elaborate further on a blog update this evening, but here’s the scoop briefly:

Timing: Snow begins and intensifies early Tuesday morning, continuing heavily through the day, before tapering off early Wednesday morning.

Impact: Heavy snow and strong winds will create poor visibility and whiteout conditions at times. Heavy snow will cause significant travel problems, especially at significant rates.

Amounts:snow map 3-12-17 915a.png

Uncertainty: There are a few keys to uncertainty here. If you’re in MetroWest to the Merrimack Valley and up into interior southeast New Hampshire, the highest certainty of amounts greater than a foot is there (hint: very likely, and still quite likely elsewhere in the 12-18″ zone). The western end is a bit more questionable. If the storm takes a track close to Nantucket, the 12-18″ zone may have to be nudged west a bit, and if it takes a track a bit more to the east, the 12-18″ zone may have to be nudged east a bit (this wouldn’t change amounts all that much, still more than a foot for MetroWest-Merrimack Valley-interior southeast NH). Speaking of the track, that’s going to be an issue to our south and east with mixing concerns for the south coast of RI and MA and especially Cape Cod and the Islands. If it takes a track closer to Nantucket, those areas will see mixing and thus less snow; if the track is more to the east, they could see a little  bit of mixing – primarily Cape/Islands – while the rest of that area would likely be in for the snow. There is also a level of uncertainty about the upper limit of snow with this one – most spots are going to see a foot or more, but how high will it go and how localized or widespread will the highest amounts be? That’ll be refined in later forecasts.

Have a good day!

-Nathan

Published by Nathan Coram

Hello! I'm Nathan Coram, a 19 year old meteorology student and weather geek, and am going into my junior year at UMass Lowell as a meteorology major. I am the current Vice President of the UML American Meteorological Society Local Student Chapter. Prior to at UML, I attended the Dracut school system for my K-12 years, having graduated from Dracut High in 2018. I first got into weather with the December 2008 ice storm, which knocked out my electricity for 4 days. I had no idea how it could be raining and becoming ice immediately, and how rain can knock out power. (Now I do - warm layer aloft, cold air at surface). But I didn't really get into it until the heat of July 2010 and specifically a few severe weather events during that month, followed by the year 2011, which featured several high profile weather events. Since then I have had a growing interest, and am hoping to make it into the meteorology field, preferably with NOAA/NWS. But for now, I'm blogging here, helping with the UML Weather Center social media, and tweeting about the weather on my own account as well. Thanks for visiting!

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