The forecast is mostly on track from this morning.
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and early evening, before a higher chance of storms that will be more clustered and more in number in the mid to late evening. Earlier modeling indicated the potential for a late evening squall line, but guidance now points to a broken line being more likely with a few clusters of storms that could be strong or severe. These storms will get their intensity to the west, in New York and western New England, where favorable storm formation conditions are in place.
Instability is marginal in some spots but is enough to maintain storms formed in an environment with decidedly more instability.
There is plenty of strong wind shear as well, which is more than plenty for organized severe weather. This helps result in the potential for damaging winds.
Cold air aloft is contributing to steep lapse rates, which helps storm formation and survival, and aids the potential for large hail.
Low LCLs and backed surface winds contribute to the low chance of an isolated tornado, mainly in the western portions of our region and into eastern New York.
Finally, heavy rain and lightning are expected as well. The chance for storms should be over by 11 PM, but most likely will be prior to that. Storms should weaken as they get to the immediate coast and areas south of the Mass Pike.
Stay tuned to updates and warnings, and be ready to head to safety at a moment’s notice. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.