Hot Monday With A Chance of Severe Storms

Good morning!

With mostly sunny skies, and increasing clouds later in the day as storms approach, expect highs in the mid to upper 80s and a southwest wind at 5-15 mph.

There is a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms today, in the afternoon and evening into early overnight in western sections and in the evening to overnight in the east. The best chance is in the west, as more favorable dynamics are in that area. Most of the area will have high instability, except along the immediate coast, and there is plenty of wind shear. The main inhibitor would be mediocre lapse rates and a more stable marine airmass inside and especially south of the I-95 corridor. The main threats are damaging winds, lightning and very heavy rain (which could lead to flash flooding, especially to the north and west where multiple rounds of this are more likely). Some hail is also possible but is likely to be mostly sub-severe. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, mainly to the west. Interior northeastern MA and southeast NH is a tossup, where dynamics are plenty and storms should hang on, but probably not as severe – but severe weather is still possible.

The best threat is mid-evening, after 6 or 7 PM, to the east, while west, the best threat begins as early as noon or so. (Despite the unstable airmass and other favorable dynamics, storms are less likely to just simply form in central and northeast MA and south central/southeast NH as they are farther away from the best forcing in tandem with the best dynamics, but some action is still certainly possible later.)

Keep an eye to the sky and monitor later weather updates. Have a fantastic day!
-Nathan

Published by Nathan Coram

Hello! I'm Nathan Coram, a 19 year old meteorology student and weather geek, and am going into my junior year at UMass Lowell as a meteorology major. I am the current Vice President of the UML American Meteorological Society Local Student Chapter. Prior to at UML, I attended the Dracut school system for my K-12 years, having graduated from Dracut High in 2018. I first got into weather with the December 2008 ice storm, which knocked out my electricity for 4 days. I had no idea how it could be raining and becoming ice immediately, and how rain can knock out power. (Now I do - warm layer aloft, cold air at surface). But I didn't really get into it until the heat of July 2010 and specifically a few severe weather events during that month, followed by the year 2011, which featured several high profile weather events. Since then I have had a growing interest, and am hoping to make it into the meteorology field, preferably with NOAA/NWS. But for now, I'm blogging here, helping with the UML Weather Center social media, and tweeting about the weather on my own account as well. Thanks for visiting!

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