Partly Sunny Saturday

Good morning!

With partly sunny skies, expect highs in the low to upper 70s, and south winds at 5-10 mph (turning west this evening).

There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms today within two timeframes.

Late Morning/Early Afternoon
A line of showers is moving across southeast NH and eastern MA. This line will move northeast through the region and the back edge will likely be out of the region around, or shortly after, noon.

Radar as of 11:06 AM:

1106a radar 8 5 17.PNG

Later Afternoon/Evening
This threat is a bit more conditional. The most notable – but one that may not actually decide the day – inhibitor is instability, as the morning showers will likely leave behind a lot of clouds. It is how fast and how much these clouds clear that will dictate how much storm formation takes place. If clouds clear faster and to a wider extent, there will likely be more storms on the map, while limited clearing means fewer storms. With that said, most guidance shows there being plenty of instability to work with between clearing skies and the humid airmass (which will make up for some of the lost instability in a cloudier scenario).

Also, with a drying airmass aloft, there is a concern for this to reduce storms as well, but the extent to which the upper levels dry out remains to be seen.

If storms do develop, expect damaging winds and heavy rain to be the main threats, as the strong upper level winds have a good chance at mixing down to the surface (and a wet downburst is also possible with the heavy rain being the main promoter), along with a very humid airmass favorable for heavy rain. Some hail is also possible, and there could even be an isolated tornado somewhere in the area with favorable low level helicity values and low lifted condensation levels (LCLs).

With all that said, have a great day and stay safe!
-Nathan

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