Partly Sunny Saturday

Good morning!

With partly sunny skies, expect highs in the low to upper 70s, and south winds at 5-10 mph (turning west this evening).

There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms today within two timeframes.

Late Morning/Early Afternoon
A line of showers is moving across southeast NH and eastern MA. This line will move northeast through the region and the back edge will likely be out of the region around, or shortly after, noon.

Radar as of 11:06 AM:

1106a radar 8 5 17.PNG

Later Afternoon/Evening
This threat is a bit more conditional. The most notable – but one that may not actually decide the day – inhibitor is instability, as the morning showers will likely leave behind a lot of clouds. It is how fast and how much these clouds clear that will dictate how much storm formation takes place. If clouds clear faster and to a wider extent, there will likely be more storms on the map, while limited clearing means fewer storms. With that said, most guidance shows there being plenty of instability to work with between clearing skies and the humid airmass (which will make up for some of the lost instability in a cloudier scenario).

Also, with a drying airmass aloft, there is a concern for this to reduce storms as well, but the extent to which the upper levels dry out remains to be seen.

If storms do develop, expect damaging winds and heavy rain to be the main threats, as the strong upper level winds have a good chance at mixing down to the surface (and a wet downburst is also possible with the heavy rain being the main promoter), along with a very humid airmass favorable for heavy rain. Some hail is also possible, and there could even be an isolated tornado somewhere in the area with favorable low level helicity values and low lifted condensation levels (LCLs).

With all that said, have a great day and stay safe!
-Nathan

Published by Nathan Coram

Hello! I'm Nathan Coram, a 19 year old meteorology student and weather geek, and am going into my junior year at UMass Lowell as a meteorology major. I am the current Vice President of the UML American Meteorological Society Local Student Chapter. Prior to at UML, I attended the Dracut school system for my K-12 years, having graduated from Dracut High in 2018. I first got into weather with the December 2008 ice storm, which knocked out my electricity for 4 days. I had no idea how it could be raining and becoming ice immediately, and how rain can knock out power. (Now I do - warm layer aloft, cold air at surface). But I didn't really get into it until the heat of July 2010 and specifically a few severe weather events during that month, followed by the year 2011, which featured several high profile weather events. Since then I have had a growing interest, and am hoping to make it into the meteorology field, preferably with NOAA/NWS. But for now, I'm blogging here, helping with the UML Weather Center social media, and tweeting about the weather on my own account as well. Thanks for visiting!

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