Nice Saturday; Incoming Strong Coastal Storm

Good morning! Sorry for the late post. I hope the abbreviated social media posts from earlier filled in the gaps fine enough… I’ve been working on the storm part of this forecast for a few hours.

Today will be a nice day with a high of 65, accompanied by mainly sunny skies and a south wind at 5-10 mph. Tonight will feature an expanding cloud deck with a low of 50 and a south wind around 5 mph.

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Let’s get into the incoming early season coastal storm.

Timing
The onset of the first showers will likely be late tomorrow morning or early afternoon, and rain becomes steadier and heavier in the evening. Winds will also increase throughout the day. The worst of the rain and the wind will be Sunday night, before the strongest winds weaken Monday morning and the last showers move out midday Monday. Gusty winds may continue for a decent amount of Monday afternoon, but will not be nearly as strong as Sunday night and Monday morning. Skies could actually become partly sunny late Monday afternoon as well.

Rain
Expect somewhere around 2″ of rain in our immediate area. Some minor flooding issues are possible but the higher risk is in western New England. Nonetheless, the accelerated timescale of the heaviest rain could exacerbate a minor flood risk locally. The best chance for flooding issues around here would be in urban and poor-drainage areas.

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Wind
Wind is likely to be the biggest issue with this storm. Expect widespread gusts over 45 mph in the eastern half of New England, with frequent peak gusts of 45-60 mph locally. Expect lots of downed tree limbs and some entirely downed trees with this event. Many power outages are likely as well. The effect of tree-related wind damage may be exacerbated due to the fact that there are still many fully leaved trees. Needless to say, a lot of those trees won’t be fully leaved when all is done with this event.

Prepare for the likelihood of power outages. Make sure your electronic devices are all charged up Sunday.

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Uncertainty
Of course, there is still a possibility that the numbers could come down a bit with minor changes. However, the more likely scenario would actually be an increase in both rainfall and wind, depending on how our storm interacts with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen in the Atlantic. If our storm pulls PTC 18 closer, that would increase rainfall totals, make peak wind gusts higher, and expand areal coverage of stronger winds.

Rest of The Five Day Forecast
Skies clear out Monday night and winds calm further with a low around 38. Tuesday will be sunny and 56, and Tuesday night will cool down fast, with temperatures in the 40s for Halloween celebrations, and a night low of 33 along with clear skies. Wednesday will be 54 and sunny.

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Have a great day!
-Nathan

Published by Nathan Coram

Hello! I'm Nathan Coram, a 19 year old meteorology student and weather geek, and am going into my junior year at UMass Lowell as a meteorology major. I am the current Vice President of the UML American Meteorological Society Local Student Chapter. Prior to at UML, I attended the Dracut school system for my K-12 years, having graduated from Dracut High in 2018. I first got into weather with the December 2008 ice storm, which knocked out my electricity for 4 days. I had no idea how it could be raining and becoming ice immediately, and how rain can knock out power. (Now I do - warm layer aloft, cold air at surface). But I didn't really get into it until the heat of July 2010 and specifically a few severe weather events during that month, followed by the year 2011, which featured several high profile weather events. Since then I have had a growing interest, and am hoping to make it into the meteorology field, preferably with NOAA/NWS. But for now, I'm blogging here, helping with the UML Weather Center social media, and tweeting about the weather on my own account as well. Thanks for visiting!

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