12-08-2017 – Quick Storm Update

Good evening! Here is a quick forecast update for tomorrow’s storm.

Hazard – Snow.

Timing – still mainly on track. Snow showers possible in the morning tomorrow, then accumulating snow starts late morning to around noon. Steady and moderate-intensity snow will continue through late tomorrow night, with heavy snow at times, before the system gets out of here around daybreak Sunday morning.

Accumulations – Increased since this morning across the board. A swath of 6-8″ is likely across north-central and northeast Massachusetts, including Dracut, and into a large swath of southern New Hampshire. A widespread area of 3-6″, with isolated higher amounts possible, covers most of the remaining part of the region. As a result of the increased amounts and confidence, the National Weather Service has flipped the Winter Weather Advisory on the MA side of the state line to a Winter Storm Warning, still from 4 AM tomorrow to 7 AM Sunday (though the 4 AM part is because snow is arriving earlier in parts of the warned area). On the New Hampshire side, a Winter Storm Watch was issued this afternoon.

There is a level of uncertainty right around Boston and points south – as well as the tip of Cape Ann northeast of Boston – on the rain/snow line. North of Boston this is a solid snow event, and it will more likely than not stay mainly snow with a brief mixing period in Boston, Cape Ann, and potentially a significant portion of Boston’s southern suburbs as well. The exact positioning of that rain/snow line will affect the accumulations there, but will not do anything to reduce amounts in Dracut. (In fact, a northwest shift in that R/S line would likely bring more water equivalent precipitation our way, which could lead to slightly more snow here). However, this is one of the higher certainty storms we have had in recent memory, at least north of Boston within 24 hours. A major bust in either direction is not likely, and changes in snow amounts would more likely be tweaks than anything else.

Snow Consistency – This won’t be a super wet snow locally, but it won’t be a very fluffy snow, either. Right in the middle. As you get closer to the coast, though, the snow will become wetter and wetter in consistency, which will make for a difficult shoveling experience there.

Impact – Travel will be made difficult to dangerous tomorrow, especially given that it is the first accumulating snow of the year. If you need to travel, be very careful, be prepared for anything, and leave plenty of time to get to your destination. A first aid kit is also a good idea.

snow map 2017-12-08 11 PM.png

Have a great night!
-Nathan

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s