12-24-2017: Storm Update #1

Good morning and Merry Christmas Eve!!!
 
With partly sunny skies, expect a high around 38 degrees today, and a light wind. The timing of the forecast snow is still on track: expect snow to start either side of midnight; the low will be around 26 tonight, with a northeast wind of 5-10 mph gusting to 15-20 mph at times. The heaviest snow will come mid-morning tomorrow before wrapping up at around noontime; tomorrow’s high will be 32 degrees, with a blustery northeast wind at 5-15 mph with gusts to 35-40 mph possible.
 
I am still forecasting a general 6-8″ for #Dracut and nearby, but have cut back on amounts to the south and southeast as the rain/snow line is looking to be a little more to the west with last night’s data. Again, I am thinking all snow is the precipitation type in the pink, deep blue sees some mixed precipitation especially in its southern and eastern areas, and the lighter shades of blue are mostly rain with some snow.
snow map 745a 2017-12-24.png
 
Now, the tough part: 6″ is warning level snow, and the National Weather Service is simultaneously putting us right along the 6″ line [they have it running directly through Dracut, I have it a little more south] and having us in a Winter Weather Advisory, which is a bit confusing. Basically, for winter weather, wind, and basically any other non-thunderstorm weather alert, they use warning zones based on portions of counties, and our warning zone’s northeast edge is along the Dracut/Methuen border, the southeast edge runs along a line from about Reading and Woburn to about Wayland and Weston, then going west to a southwest point to the southwest of Framingham, then running north-south and ending just east of Pepperell at the NH border. That is an area where the weather can be diverse, and slapping one warning or advisory type for that whole area makes no sense. The people at the NWS in Taunton do a fantastic job, even though I disagree with them on some elements of this forecast [I disagree with the exact location of some of their lines and their assertion that Boston will be completely rain, though I do think that Boston will be *mainly* rain.] It isn’t exactly their fault that this zone is like this: warning zones are hard to change and they are following the letter of the NWS warning rules by their own forecast, which is an advisory level snow for most of the zone.
 
With that said, have a great day! I will try to get an update out this afternoon.
-Nathan
Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s