3-6-2018 – Major Snowstorm Update #2

Good evening! I’ve had to tweak the forecast a little bit this evening.
 
Timing:
Snow begins mid-morning Wednesday, with a steady but probably not too heavy rate of snowfall by midday. There is a very slight chance of a mix with rain around midday Wednesday before flipping back to all snow by the early to mid afternoon. The heavy snow starts in the mid afternoon to early evening frame, with the height of the storm being from Wednesday evening’s commute through Thursday morning’s commute. Snow will be tapering off by mid-morning Thursday and be completely done by around noontime on Thursday (note that another brief mix with rain is possible right around midday Thursday if precipitation is still falling.)
 
Uncertainty / Precip Type:
All snow is likely, with a low possibility of a brief mix with rain midday Wednesday and again midday Thursday. Regardless, the location of the primary rain/snow line will determine just how heavy and wet our snowfall is. The snow will be heavy and wet regardless, but how far we are from the line will determine just how heavy and wet the snow is. 
 
Other Hazards:
Wind gusts up to 35 mph will be possible. This will result in reduced visibility and the potential for blowing and drifting snow. This, combined with the weight of this heavy wet snow and weakened tree limbs from our last storm, will result in a risk of power outages. Make sure your electronics are charged!
 
Snowfall Totals:
10-16″ for Dracut; favored to be in the lower to middle part of the range.
snow map 2018-03-06 430P.png
 
Going into other zones, the 16-20″ zone is self explanatory – all snow, and not nearly as heavy and wet. The 5-10″ and 3-5″ zones will be high uncertainty zones, because this will likely be the battleground zone in terms of the rain/snow line being nearby. The 1-3″ zone will see a lot of mixing, and probably 100 percent rain for a time. The 0-1″ zone will be mainly rain. With regard to the zones, I don’t think the lower totals will need to be pushed much farther north, if at all, with my update tomorrow morning.
 
Have a great evening!
-Nathan

Published by Nathan Coram

Hello! I'm Nathan Coram, a 19 year old meteorology student and weather geek, and am going into my junior year at UMass Lowell as a meteorology major. I am the current Vice President of the UML American Meteorological Society Local Student Chapter. Prior to at UML, I attended the Dracut school system for my K-12 years, having graduated from Dracut High in 2018. I first got into weather with the December 2008 ice storm, which knocked out my electricity for 4 days. I had no idea how it could be raining and becoming ice immediately, and how rain can knock out power. (Now I do - warm layer aloft, cold air at surface). But I didn't really get into it until the heat of July 2010 and specifically a few severe weather events during that month, followed by the year 2011, which featured several high profile weather events. Since then I have had a growing interest, and am hoping to make it into the meteorology field, preferably with NOAA/NWS. But for now, I'm blogging here, helping with the UML Weather Center social media, and tweeting about the weather on my own account as well. Thanks for visiting!

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