3-12-2018: AM Forecast/3-13 Storm Update

Good evening!

Some info on the upcoming storm is below, but first, today will have a high around 38, with increasing clouds and an east wind at 5-10 mph.

Timing
Snow starts during the mid-overnight hours tonight. Heavy snow will take place from just before sunrise all the way before the mid-evening hours before gradually winding down by the mid evening. Residual snow showers will be possible all the way through Wednesday, though.

Hazards
Major snowfall and strong winds.

Uncertainty
Guidance has come into pretty good agreement on the forecast overnight. However, there are still a few outlier holdouts that must be monitored closely for small increases or decreases in the forecast in case they latch on. The more notable possibility is heavy snowfall banding: if we get into the heaviest banding, the amounts could surpass what is currently forecast. Overall though, I don’t expect my forecast to change much.

Impact
Heavy snowfall will create extremely dangerous travel conditions. Wind gusts around 40 mph are possible, which would lead to near-blizzard conditions if it verifies to that level with blowing and drifting of snow. Some minor wind damage is possible. However, property/tree damage and power outages will likely be only a very tiny fraction of what we saw with the last storm, because whereas the last storm featured an extremely wet snow, this storm will feature a drastically lighter and fluffier snow that will be easier to move than even your average winter storm. With a much drier snowfall, power lines and tree limbs will not be weighed down, so low-end, isolated wind-based damage would be the main concern. Some limbs that were weakened by the last storm could fall in some strong gusts, but other than that, I don’t see widespread wind/tree damage and power outages being a thing with this storm around Dracut — or almost anywhere else even close to here, for that matter. Those living near the entire coastline will see stronger winds and thus more damage potential. If you know people who live in southeastern MA, it would be wise to give them a heads up since it will be a much wetter / heavier snow near and on Cape Cod and the South Coast of MA.

Wind and Temperature Forecast
Tonight: low 28, Northeast wind 5-10 mph, gusts to 30 mph
Tuesday daytime: high 31, North-northeast wind 10-20 mph, gusts to 40 mph
Tuesday night: low 28, West wind 5-10 mph, gusts to 25 mph

Snowfall Forecast
I have Dracut in the 12-18″+ snowfall range.

snow map 2018-03-11 530A

Beyond The Storm
Conditions fluctuate throughout the rest of the week with temperatures in the 30s. 40s are possible Wednesday and Thursday if my current projections are too low.

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Have a great day!
-Nathan

Published by Nathan Coram

Hello! I'm Nathan Coram, a 19 year old meteorology student and weather geek, and am going into my junior year at UMass Lowell as a meteorology major. I am the current Vice President of the UML American Meteorological Society Local Student Chapter. Prior to at UML, I attended the Dracut school system for my K-12 years, having graduated from Dracut High in 2018. I first got into weather with the December 2008 ice storm, which knocked out my electricity for 4 days. I had no idea how it could be raining and becoming ice immediately, and how rain can knock out power. (Now I do - warm layer aloft, cold air at surface). But I didn't really get into it until the heat of July 2010 and specifically a few severe weather events during that month, followed by the year 2011, which featured several high profile weather events. Since then I have had a growing interest, and am hoping to make it into the meteorology field, preferably with NOAA/NWS. But for now, I'm blogging here, helping with the UML Weather Center social media, and tweeting about the weather on my own account as well. Thanks for visiting!

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