3/20/2018 Evening Update

Good evening! I have some significant forecast changes to announce for the storm tomorrow.

Timing
Snow starts early to mid afternoon tomorrow, with snow peaking during the late evening and early overnight hours, before gradually winding down during the rest of the overnight hours. Snow is done by the morning commute tomorrow.

Uncertainty
The exact storm path will dictate how much snow we get, and there will be a fairly sharp northern cutoff. There has been a large jump to the south today and this forecast reflects that. However, a jog to the north could restore a significant snowfall. On the flip side, we could be looking at next to nothing with a further trend south.

Totals
With that said, I have downgraded Dracut to a 3-6″ zone (with isolated higher numbers possible). We aren’t too far south of the 0-3″ zone (newly introduced for northern sections of my map), and not too far north of the 6-10″ zone, so we’ll still have to monitor, but after being the jackpot of the last two storms, we probably won’t be the jackpot again even if a shift north takes place over the next 24 hours. Due to the uncertainty in the forecast, the National Weather Service is maintaining the Winter Storm WATCH as opposed to switching over to a Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Storm Warning as they usually would have by this point.

snow map 2018-03-20 413P.png

Have a great evening!
-Nathan

Published by Nathan Coram

Hello! I'm Nathan Coram, a 19 year old meteorology student and weather geek, and am going into my junior year at UMass Lowell as a meteorology major. I am the current Vice President of the UML American Meteorological Society Local Student Chapter. Prior to at UML, I attended the Dracut school system for my K-12 years, having graduated from Dracut High in 2018. I first got into weather with the December 2008 ice storm, which knocked out my electricity for 4 days. I had no idea how it could be raining and becoming ice immediately, and how rain can knock out power. (Now I do - warm layer aloft, cold air at surface). But I didn't really get into it until the heat of July 2010 and specifically a few severe weather events during that month, followed by the year 2011, which featured several high profile weather events. Since then I have had a growing interest, and am hoping to make it into the meteorology field, preferably with NOAA/NWS. But for now, I'm blogging here, helping with the UML Weather Center social media, and tweeting about the weather on my own account as well. Thanks for visiting!

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