11/30/19 AM Update on 12/1 to 12/3 Storm

Good morning!

While I’m writing this up, may as well offer up a forecast for today: sunny, high 33, northwest wind 5-10 mph, with gusts of 20-30 mph at times. Now onto the storm.

Snow begins during the afternoon Sunday, in the 12 to 4 pm time frame, before ramping up after sunset. The heaviest snow will be overnight Sunday night into Monday morning; this will yield significant impacts to the Monday morning commute, likely leading to all area schools being closed for Monday. Snow continues throughout the day Monday, and doesn’t wrap up until around sunrise Tuesday morning, therefore creating an impact to the evening commute time Monday, and potentially even the Tuesday morning commute, although the Tuesday commute time will have minor impacts compared to the two Monday commute times.

There is a slight chance that snow could briefly mix with sleet Monday morning, but I think this system is going to remain mostly or all snow given the vertical temperature profiles with this system. Mixing will be a much more significant problem to the south, as well as at the immediate coastline. Even if we do see some sleet, I don’t think it will be enough to dramatically lower our snowfall total, barring a dramatic change in the forecast.

As for amounts, I think we will see around a foot of snow; I thus have Dracut and the area in the 10-15″ range, along with much of interior northern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire. The bullseye of this storm is in east-central New York, southern Vermont, and northwest Massachusetts with 15-20″ of snow expected, and perhaps up to 2 feet in some spots.

Going back down the scale, expect 5-10″ near and south of the Mass Pike and inside of I-95/Rt. 128, as mixing with sleet will be a more significant issue in these areas. The 5-10″ zone includes Boston and its northern suburbs, the North Shore (except Cape Ann), the Newburyport area, easternmost areas of southern New Hampshire, the Springfield area, the southern suburbs of Worcester, most of northern Connecticut, and far northwest Rhode Island.

From there, amounts decrease sharply in Rhode Island, southeast Massachusetts, and southern Connecticut, where this system will be much more of a sloppy mix. Cape Ann in northeast Massachusetts is also in the 3-5″ zone.

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I’ll have more on this later today!
-Nathan

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