3/22/20 Evening Update

Good evening! Quick update pertaining to the winter weather that is on the dock for tomorrow (Monday) night.

Precipitation Type: Snow and rain.

Timing: Starting in the mid-evening hours (around the time of the typical rush hour) Monday as rain, switching to a mix of rain and snow after sunset. Continuing overnight as either rain, snow, or a mix, then ending before sunrise Tuesday morning.

Amounts: Currently, I am expecting 2-5″ for the Dracut area, although expect closer to 2″ or 3″. Elsewhere, expect 0-2″ closer to the coast and 4-8″ further north and west. However, there’s significant uncertainty with the forecast for a number of reasons, with the possibility that this current forecast could be too low or too high.

At this point, it looks like rain will mix in with the snow at times, but likely not for enough time to create a complete snow shutout. If the system ends up slightly warmer, though, this could create a near-shutout or total shutout in terms of accumulating snow. On the flip side, if we get into a heavier precipitation area, this could create additional cooling near the surface, which could perhaps result in hitting the 5″ end of the range, with a slight chance of exceeding that.

The overnight guidance should help clear up some of this…. hopefully.

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Have a good night and be well!
-Nathan

Published by Nathan Coram

Hello! I'm Nathan Coram, a 19 year old meteorology student and weather geek, and am going into my junior year at UMass Lowell as a meteorology major. I am the current Vice President of the UML American Meteorological Society Local Student Chapter. Prior to at UML, I attended the Dracut school system for my K-12 years, having graduated from Dracut High in 2018. I first got into weather with the December 2008 ice storm, which knocked out my electricity for 4 days. I had no idea how it could be raining and becoming ice immediately, and how rain can knock out power. (Now I do - warm layer aloft, cold air at surface). But I didn't really get into it until the heat of July 2010 and specifically a few severe weather events during that month, followed by the year 2011, which featured several high profile weather events. Since then I have had a growing interest, and am hoping to make it into the meteorology field, preferably with NOAA/NWS. But for now, I'm blogging here, helping with the UML Weather Center social media, and tweeting about the weather on my own account as well. Thanks for visiting!

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