5/15/20: Severe Thunderstorms Possible

Good morning!

With increasing clouds, expect a high around 80, with a light southwest wind. This afternoon and evening, there is a chance of some strong to severe thunderstorms. The warm front moved much farther north last night than anticipated in my forecast yesterday morning, which has opened the door for favorable conditions to develop throughout the day. There is a higher than usual risk of damaging winds with this event; small hail (with a few instances of larger hail possible), heavy rain and lightning are all in the cards as usual. There is even a low risk for a few tornadoes across the region today, although this low risk is a bit higher than our usual low risk tornado days. The timeline for severe weather will be from 3 to 10 pm, although most of the high-resolution guidance shows that the bulk of the activity will most likely be after 6 pm, with some scattered strong to severe storms possible ahead of what will likely be an intense squall line.

Keep an eye on weather conditions and updates this afternoon and evening; unfortunately I am working so I don’t know how much I’ll be able to put out as far as updates on my social media channels. I’ll try my best, but no promises unfortunately.

Beyond that, Saturday’s forecast has improved significantly. Yesterday morning’s guidance showed this morning’s warm front reversing and becoming a backdoor cold front this evening several hours prior to the passage of the primary cold front overnight tonight; over the last 24 hours the guidance has shifted toward keeping the front in place through at least most of Saturday, if not longer, and our cause was helped by the front moving all the way into Maine. The primary cold front tonight will be far less potent in terms of a temperature drop than a backdoor front tonight would have been.

Expect a low around 57, with a southwest wind around 5 mph, turning light and gradually shifting to the north, along with decreasing clouds once the severe weather passes. Tomorrow will have a high around 71, with mostly sunny skies and a north wind near 5 mph. Some guidance does show temperatures dropping before sunset due to the chance that the aforementioned backdoor front swings through tomorrow evening; however, some guidance doesn’t show this as prominently. Either way, tomorrow looks nice, and tomorrow night will turn mostly cloudy with a low around 48, as the wind shifts to a light wind out of the east.

Have a great day!
-Nathan

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