Tropical Storm Fay is running almost parallel to the New Jersey shore this morning and will make landfall somewhere along the New Jersey shore or in the New York metro area this afternoon or evening. As a result of Fay running a bit to the west compared to the forecast from last night, the forecast has changed a little bit. Expect a high around 87 today, with partly sunny skies this morning giving way to mostly cloudy conditions toward this evening.
Hazards: The main hazard is minor flooding, with flash flooding also possible, due to heavy rainfall. Gusty winds are expected at times, although it won’t be anything out of the ordinary compared to a typical breezy day. An isolated severe thunderstorm could produce a stronger wind gust or an isolated tornado tonight or tomorrow, but the main risk zone for this is southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut tonight, shifting to Connecticut, western Massachusetts, and southern Vermont tomorrow; central and northeast Massachusetts and points further north have the least risk of severe weather but a stray strong storm can’t be completely ruled out locally.
Timing: A few showers and storms are possible this afternoon and evening. The heaviest rain will fall overnight tonight before ending tomorrow morning. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the day tomorrow, although the chance for precipitation drops significantly in the afternoon. We could even pull out some breaks of sunshine later in the day tomorrow.
Impacts: The main impact locally will be from potential minor flooding in urban and poor-drainage areas. However, because of the west shift in the track I mentioned, the Flash Flood Watch previously in effect from noon today to noon tomorrow has been cancelled by the National Weather Service in Norton, as the flood threat has gone down for central and eastern Massachusetts. (The watch continues in western Massachusetts and Connecticut). In our neck of the woods, I don’t expect wind damage to be a problem. As you travel further south and west, gusty to strong winds will pose more of a threat, but around here, the most notable impact is that it may get a bit on the gusty side, but nothing beyond the scope of a typical breezy day we see often during the spring and fall. Again, a strong storm can’t be completely ruled out, but this is very unlikely in our area.
Specifics: Expect between 0.5″ and 1.5″ of rain locally (and in much of eastern and central New England). Those in western New England will see roughly 1.5″ to 3″ of rain. Winds will be generally south and east, at 5-15 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. Again, a very isolated stray storm could produce a stronger wind gust, but this is an extremely low threat in our area
Discussion: The center of Fay will pass over far western New England tonight and tomorrow, after making landfall somewhere along the Jersey shore or in the New York metro area. Tropical systems tend to have their heaviest rainfall on the west side of the system; Fay’s heaviest rain will be around the center extending a bit to the west. Being on the east side of the low, we will be subject to less rain locally.
See below, the 8 AM track forecast from the National Hurricane Center for Fay’s track.
Have a great day!