Saturday 8/1/20 – Tracking Isaias For Tue/Wed

Good morning!
 
With mostly sunny skies, expect a high around 87 today, with a light wind primarily out of the north. Tonight will be mostly clear and 67, with a light south wind.
 
Sunday will be partly sunny and 89, with a south wind of 5-10 mph, gusting up to 25 mph late in the afternoon and evening. There is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the evening, but it will most likely stay dry. Sunday night will be mostly cloudy and 72, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a south wind of 5-10 mph, turning to the southwest.
 
weather 2020-08-01.001.jpeg
 
Going forward, there is again a slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm Monday, with a high around 90 along with partly cloudy skies. Clouds will be on the increase Monday night and Tuesday, as what is currently Hurricane Isaias will likely approach the region as a tropical storm. Rain is likely at times Tuesday, Tuesday night, and Wednesday, with a high of 78 Tuesday and 81 Wednesday. The exact timing is not completely clear, but Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning is the most likely time for impacts. A period of heavy rain is likely, with the potential for strong winds depending on how things play out.
 
The National Hurricane Center’s cone of uncertainty covers all of New England, and the forecast path as of 2 AM today brings the center in our vicinity. There has been a noticeable westward jog in Isaias’ forecast path in the last 24 hours; if it passes over land in the Carolinas, it may weaken somewhat, but assuming Isaias passes over the waters south of Long Island and south coastal New England, it shouldn’t fall apart. That being said, there is a range of potential scenarios if Isaias continues to trend west, if it trends back to the east, or stays more or less on the current forecast path. I wouldn’t expect anything extreme, but we could be in for some strong winds. Whether those winds would be of tropical storm force is not clear, but it’s tough to accomplish inland – but not impossible, as NHC is currently forecasting that Isaias will retain tropical storm force winds into the New Brunswick and Nova Scotia area. Again, the exact extent of the wind potential (and heavy rain too!) will depend on the exact path. I’ll have more details on this in the coming days; see below the 2 AM advisory map from the NHC as well as my 5 day forecast.
 
weather 2020-08-01.002.jpeg
035129_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind
 
Have a great day!
-Nathan

Published by Nathan Coram

Hello! I'm Nathan Coram, a 19 year old meteorology student and weather geek, and am going into my junior year at UMass Lowell as a meteorology major. I am the current Vice President of the UML American Meteorological Society Local Student Chapter. Prior to at UML, I attended the Dracut school system for my K-12 years, having graduated from Dracut High in 2018. I first got into weather with the December 2008 ice storm, which knocked out my electricity for 4 days. I had no idea how it could be raining and becoming ice immediately, and how rain can knock out power. (Now I do - warm layer aloft, cold air at surface). But I didn't really get into it until the heat of July 2010 and specifically a few severe weather events during that month, followed by the year 2011, which featured several high profile weather events. Since then I have had a growing interest, and am hoping to make it into the meteorology field, preferably with NOAA/NWS. But for now, I'm blogging here, helping with the UML Weather Center social media, and tweeting about the weather on my own account as well. Thanks for visiting!

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