Monday 8/3/20 – Tropical Storm Isaias Update #1 – Tropical Storm Watch in Effect

Good morning! This update will mostly focus on Tropical Storm Isaias.

Today’s Forecast:
Today will be mostly sunny and 91, with a southwest wind of 5-15 mph, turning west late this afternoon and gusting up to 25 mph. Clouds will be on the increase tonight as the earliest rain bands move in late overnight; the low will be 70 with a calm wind.

Tropical Storm Isaias – Monday Morning Update:
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT.

Hazards: Strong winds and heavy rain are the primary hazards. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday evening and early overnight, with damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes the main severe weather hazards.

Winds: South wind 5-10 mph during the day Tuesday, turning southeast at 25-35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph Tuesday evening and early overnight (with higher gusts not impossible if a severe thunderstorm forms), then turning southwest 10-20 mph during the later overnight hours, gusting up to 35 mph. Note that there is at least some potential that sustained winds could exceed 40 mph, hence the issuance of the Tropical Storm Watch from the National Weather Service – the first time the Dracut area has been under a tropical weather alert since Hurricane Irene in 2011.

Rainfall: 1 to 2 inches of rain is most likely in the Dracut area. The heaviest and steadiest rain (over 3″) will stay in far western New England into New York state, but minor flooding problems are still possible locally. If Isaias continues trending west, it is not impossible we could end up with less than an inch of rain; if it ticks back east or if we get some particularly heavy downpours, over two inches cannot be ruled out.

Impacts: Scattered power outages are possible, along with some wind damage to trees. due to strong wind gusts. Unsecured outdoor objects may be blown around. Isolated severe thunderstorms could cause swaths of isolated higher end wind damage, though this is unlikely. Heavy rain may cause localized minor flooding issues; significant flooding problems are unlikely in our area of New England.

Timing: The earliest rain bands may move in late overnight tonight. Rain will occur at times throughout the day Tuesday; rain may be heavy at times, with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, evening, and early overnight. Wind will not likely be a factor until the evening hours; the strongest wind gusts will occur tomorrow evening and early overnight. Rain should be done shortly after midnight. It will remain quite windy through most of tomorrow overnight, however.

Temperatures: mainly in the 70s. High 81 tomorrow, low 71 tomorrow night.

Uncertainty: slight shifts in the track could dramatically affect the final rain total.

National Hurricane Center – 5 AM Forecast Path:
092753_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

weather 2020-08-03.001

Rest of the Week / Five Day Forecast:
The rest of the week currently looks to be sunny or mostly sunny. Expect clearing skies Wednesday morning, leading to a beautiful Wednesday with a high around 87. Wednesday night will be 62; Thursday will be 84; Thursday night will be 63; Friday will be 86.

weather 2020-08-03.002.jpeg

Have a great day! I am working this evening but will likely put out another full-length post some time this evening.
-Nathan

Published by Nathan Coram

Hello! I'm Nathan Coram, a 19 year old meteorology student and weather geek, and am going into my junior year at UMass Lowell as a meteorology major. I am the current Vice President of the UML American Meteorological Society Local Student Chapter. Prior to at UML, I attended the Dracut school system for my K-12 years, having graduated from Dracut High in 2018. I first got into weather with the December 2008 ice storm, which knocked out my electricity for 4 days. I had no idea how it could be raining and becoming ice immediately, and how rain can knock out power. (Now I do - warm layer aloft, cold air at surface). But I didn't really get into it until the heat of July 2010 and specifically a few severe weather events during that month, followed by the year 2011, which featured several high profile weather events. Since then I have had a growing interest, and am hoping to make it into the meteorology field, preferably with NOAA/NWS. But for now, I'm blogging here, helping with the UML Weather Center social media, and tweeting about the weather on my own account as well. Thanks for visiting!

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