Interesting exercise in marginal-temperature snow setup forecasts today. Myself (and most other forecasters, FWIW) significantly overestimated snow-to-liquid ratios. It already looked as if they would be well under 10:1 with 7:1 or 8:1 seeming more likely, but they ended up somewhere between 3:1 to 6:1 instead, which is why we got glorified water today.
As a student of science I’m doing some research on how exactly the forecast went wrong (it appears the snow to liquid ratio was the main culprit, as the liquid forecasts were fine and the changeover timing forecast was fine). Assuming I don’t get sidetracked watching NFL RedZone tomorrow, I’m going to try and do a more technical write up to post tomorrow or Monday on the subject.
Let’s keep this forecast bust positive: at least we didn’t get widespread power outages!
Have a great night!