Sat 12/5/20 – Evening Update re: Forecast Bust

Interesting exercise in marginal-temperature snow setup forecasts today. Myself (and most other forecasters, FWIW) significantly overestimated snow-to-liquid ratios. It already looked as if they would be well under 10:1 with 7:1 or 8:1 seeming more likely, but they ended up somewhere between 3:1 to 6:1 instead, which is why we got glorified water today.

As a student of science I’m doing some research on how exactly the forecast went wrong (it appears the snow to liquid ratio was the main culprit, as the liquid forecasts were fine and the changeover timing forecast was fine). Assuming I don’t get sidetracked watching NFL RedZone tomorrow, I’m going to try and do a more technical write up to post tomorrow or Monday on the subject.

Let’s keep this forecast bust positive: at least we didn’t get widespread power outages!

Have a great night!

Published by Nathan Coram

Hello! I'm Nathan Coram, a 20 year old meteorology student and weather geek, and am in my junior year at UMass Lowell as a meteorology major. I am the current Vice President of the UML American Meteorological Society Local Student Chapter. Prior to at UML, I attended the Dracut school system for my K-12 years, having graduated from Dracut High in 2018. I first got into weather with the December 2008 ice storm, which knocked out my electricity for 4 days. I had no idea how it could be raining and becoming ice immediately, and how rain can knock out power. (Now I do - warm layer aloft, cold air at surface). But I didn't really get into it until the heat of July 2010 and specifically a few severe weather events during that month, followed by the year 2011, which featured several high profile weather events. Since then I have had a growing interest, and am hoping to make it into the meteorology field, preferably with NOAA/NWS. But for now, I'm blogging here on Dracut Weather (also on Twitter and Facebook), helping with the UML Weather Center social media, and tweeting about the weather on my own account as well. Thanks for visiting!

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