Sunday 12/13/20

Good morning!

With mostly cloudy skies, expect a high around 56 today, with a southwest wind at 5-10 mph.

There are two upcoming snow chances – read on for more info.

MONDAY: This is a minor “mood snowfall” event. Snow showers are possible tomorrow afternoon with a coating to an inch possible throughout much of New England. The snow may be mixed with rain at times. Overall, this is a minor event; not much to worry about here.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY: If everything goes right, this could be a blockbuster snowstorm. That will depend on the exact track. What we do know at this point is a storm system will pass in our general vicinity. There is also strong support for cold air, so someone in the Northeast is likely going to get smoked by this one. At this point it’s just a question of where and how much. This is a completely different situation than last weekend’s storm where temperatures were very marginal and the whole storm depended on it “making its own cold air”, per se. The support for cold air will make this a light, fluffy snowfall.

The main point of uncertainty for our area is the northern edge of the precipitation shield. Most ensemble and operational guidance has us seeing at least some snow, but we could get nearly shut out if the system ticks a bit too far south. However, if we do get in on the precipitation shield, the high snow-to-liquid ratios will likely compensate somewhat, as this will likely be in the coldest air of the entire system. If we get in on the heavy precipitation, we could get absolutely slammed with snowfall. The guidance has fairly high confidence (especially for being 3-4 days out) on the storm taking place, as well as the cold air aspect of the system; and moderate confidence on the track (high confidence on the vicinity of the track but much lower on the precise location). We’ll likely know more by tomorrow, so stay tuned.

Have a great day!
-Nathan

Published by Nathan Coram

Hello! I'm Nathan Coram, a 20 year old meteorology student and weather geek, and am in my junior year at UMass Lowell as a meteorology major. I am the current Vice President of the UML American Meteorological Society Local Student Chapter. Prior to at UML, I attended the Dracut school system for my K-12 years, having graduated from Dracut High in 2018. I first got into weather with the December 2008 ice storm, which knocked out my electricity for 4 days. I had no idea how it could be raining and becoming ice immediately, and how rain can knock out power. (Now I do - warm layer aloft, cold air at surface). But I didn't really get into it until the heat of July 2010 and specifically a few severe weather events during that month, followed by the year 2011, which featured several high profile weather events. Since then I have had a growing interest, and am hoping to make it into the meteorology field, preferably with NOAA/NWS. But for now, I'm blogging here on Dracut Weather (also on Twitter and Facebook), helping with the UML Weather Center social media, and tweeting about the weather on my own account as well. Thanks for visiting!

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