Tuesday 12/15/20: AM Update

Good morning!

We have a significant snowstorm on our hands, but first, two days to get through. Today will be sunny and 32, with a northwest wind at 5-15 mph. Tonight will be clear and cold, with a low around 11, and a northwest wind around 5 mph. Tomorrow will have gradually increasing clouds, with a high around 26, and a north wind around 5 mph. Snow begins around midnight Wednesday night, with a low around 15.

weather 2020-12-15.001

And now for some more specific snow-related details.

Timing: Snow begins around midnight Wednesday night. The heaviest snow will likely be toward the morning commute hours, before tapering off around midday and ending by early afternoon. Over 1″ per hour of snow will be possible at times, but the higher risk for especially heavy totals is to our south (more on that in a moment).

Amounts: Given the sharp northern cutoff with this system (which I will get into in the “uncertainty” section), I am doing something a little unusual and going with overlapping forecast amounts. The good news with this system is the snow will be lightweight and fluffy throughout the area! Expect up to 4″ in central New Hampshire; the distance between no snow at all and several inches of snow may be very sharp. A narrow swath of modest 2-5″ is likely for most of southern New Hampshire, with the potential for isolated higher amounts if the stars align. From there, a widespread 5-10″ – with higher amounts possible – is likely for much of northern and western Massachusetts including the Dracut/Lowell area. This 5-10″ zone also encompasses extreme southern New Hampshire including the Manchester to Nashua corridor. Most locales along and south of the Mass Pike sit in an 8-12″ zone, with higher amounts possible. This includes Boston and Worcester, as well as all of CT, RI, and much of southeast MA. These zones are subject to change though, so stay tuned.

Uncertainty: The good news is this is nothing like the December 5th storm. There is lots of cold air available with this system, so precipitation type is not a concern. The main worry is with the northern cutoff of snowfall, which will likely be somewhat sharper than currently modeled, given the influence of high pressure over Quebec. If the system tracks slightly more to the north, this opens up a greater possibility of higher-end amounts over 10 inches. However, a tick to the south would give us a more modest snowfall than currently projected. Almost all data shows us having enough precipitation to get to 6″ of snow, and some show a fair bit more than that, but the margins are relatively narrow. Given the cold air with this system, the snow will be a dry, fluffy, lightweight snow, which will make snow-to-liquid ratios rather high (likely 15:1 or higher). This means that even if we get a little less moisture than anticipated, the cold air will compensate somewhat. The issue with the December 5th storm wasn’t available moisture or track, it was an issue with significantly overestimating the snow-to-liquid ratio due to the marginal and unstable nature of the cold air of that system. We won’t be in for that kind of a system, thankfully. I’m much more confident in this forecast than that one, but as I mentioned, the northern cutoff could still find a way to mess with us locally.

Slide5

Once snow tapers off by early afternoon Thursday, cold conditions continue into the weekend. Expect mostly clear skies Thursday night and a low around 10, sunny skies Friday with a high around 27, clear skies Friday night and a low around 7, and mostly sunny skies Saturday and a high around 28.

I’m working around midday today and have a final tonight, so I may not have an update this evening. I have another student forecaster doing the UML update tonight so I may pass along his forecast this evening if I don’t have time to write my own.

Have a great day!
-Nathan

Published by Nathan Coram

Hello! I'm Nathan Coram, a 20 year old meteorology student and weather geek, and am in my junior year at UMass Lowell as a meteorology major. I am the current Vice President of the UML American Meteorological Society Local Student Chapter. Prior to at UML, I attended the Dracut school system for my K-12 years, having graduated from Dracut High in 2018. I first got into weather with the December 2008 ice storm, which knocked out my electricity for 4 days. I had no idea how it could be raining and becoming ice immediately, and how rain can knock out power. (Now I do - warm layer aloft, cold air at surface). But I didn't really get into it until the heat of July 2010 and specifically a few severe weather events during that month, followed by the year 2011, which featured several high profile weather events. Since then I have had a growing interest, and am hoping to make it into the meteorology field, preferably with NOAA/NWS. But for now, I'm blogging here on Dracut Weather (also on Twitter and Facebook), helping with the UML Weather Center social media, and tweeting about the weather on my own account as well. Thanks for visiting!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: