Wednesday 12/16/20 – AM Update

Good morning! Quick tweak to the forecast to account for continued trends favoring a major snowfall.

What’s Changed:
Not much. I moved the 10″ line further north, and made slight tweaks to the boundaries in southeast Massachusetts. The 10-15″ zone is now a 10-17″ zone.

Timing:
Snow begins late this evening, just before midnight. The heaviest snow falls overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning’s commute, with the potential for over 2″ of snow per hour at times. Snow lightens in intensity some by late morning and ends completely by mid-afternoon.

Amounts:
Widespread 10-17″ snow, with the potential for isolated higher amounts. Where exactly we end up in the range depends on where bands set up, but this is about as clear-cut as it can get. This will be a light and fluffy snow for most locations throughout the storm, including the Dracut/Lowell area, where we will be in the teens to mid 20s throughout the storm. Areas closest to the coast as well as around Boston will start with a slightly wetter snow (but not a super wet snow by any means) but the bulk of the snow there will still be on the lightweight side. Mixing concerns do exist in southeast Massachusetts, where forecast snow totals are lower.

dracut-2

Uncertainty:
Not much uncertainty at this point. There are enough factors going our way that it would take multiple large failures for us to not reach 10″ of snow. An area of subsidence is being picked out by most models extending from roughly Manchester to Worcester with slightly lower precipitation totals, but the snow ratios should be high enough to more than compensate for that and get those places to 10″. Locally, the main question is whether we end up on the low end or the high end of the range, and only time will tell for that question. Get ready, everyone – this one looks like a hit.

Have a great day!
-Nathan

Published by Nathan Coram

Hello! I'm Nathan Coram, a 20 year old meteorology student and weather geek, and am in my junior year at UMass Lowell as a meteorology major. I am the current Vice President of the UML American Meteorological Society Local Student Chapter. Prior to at UML, I attended the Dracut school system for my K-12 years, having graduated from Dracut High in 2018. I first got into weather with the December 2008 ice storm, which knocked out my electricity for 4 days. I had no idea how it could be raining and becoming ice immediately, and how rain can knock out power. (Now I do - warm layer aloft, cold air at surface). But I didn't really get into it until the heat of July 2010 and specifically a few severe weather events during that month, followed by the year 2011, which featured several high profile weather events. Since then I have had a growing interest, and am hoping to make it into the meteorology field, preferably with NOAA/NWS. But for now, I'm blogging here on Dracut Weather (also on Twitter and Facebook), helping with the UML Weather Center social media, and tweeting about the weather on my own account as well. Thanks for visiting!

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