Deceiving Start to Sunday

Good morning!

With mostly sunny skies, becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon with rain likely in the evening, expect highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s, with south-southwest winds at 5-10 mph.

Have a good day!
-Nathan

Decent Saturday

Good morning!

Under partly sunny skies, and a chance of isolated showers and storms, expect highs in the mid 60s to the low 70s. Winds will be northwest at 5-15 mph.

Have a great day!
-Nathan

Mostly Sunny Friday with a Chance of Storms

Good morning!

With mostly sunny skies and a chance of some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, expect high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s. Winds will be west at 5-10 mph.

Thunderstorms could contain heavy rain, lightning, and small hail. Keep an eye to weather updates and an eye to the sky, and be ready to take shelter at a moment’s notice.

Have a great day!
-Nathan

6/1/17 Severe Weather Update #2 (12:30 PM)

Good afternoon!

Things seem to have changed a little and now we have a chance of some more severe weather today. Being in my study block permits me to write a quick update.

The main timing of today’s threat will be between 2 and 8 PM. Storms will be far more isolated to scattered in nature than yesterday – more hit or miss in nature.
Wind shear is a bit weaker than yesterday, but still should be enough for strong to perhaps locally damaging winds.
Lapse rates are about the same with a strong cold pool aloft and good surface heating, which aids storm development and maintenance; also, the cold pool aloft can aid the potential for hail along with decent vertical shear.
Instability is definitely better than yesterday, due to better surface heating and fewer clouds.
Briefly heavy rain and lightning are also expected in any storm.
A potential detracting factor would be lower moisture than yesterday, hampering a storm’s development and progress.

Stay safe, keep an eye to the sky, and stay tuned for updates!
-Nathan

Beautiful Thursday

Good morning!

With some fog giving way to mostly sunny skies and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms – but any storm could be strong to severe with strong wind, hail, lightning and rain – expect highs in the mid to upper 70s, with low to mid 70s in the highest terrain of southwest NH and north central MA as well as at the very immediate coast. Winds will be out of the west at 5-15 mph.

Enjoy the nice weather while we have it, as things turn south for at least the first half of next week. Have a great day!
-Nathan

5/31/17 Severe Weather Update #2 (4 PM)

Good afternoon!

The forecast is mostly on track from this morning.

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and early evening, before a higher chance of storms that will be more clustered and more in number in the mid to late evening. Earlier modeling indicated the potential for a late evening squall line, but guidance now points to a broken line being more likely with a few clusters of storms that could be strong or severe. These storms will get their intensity to the west, in New York and western New England, where favorable storm formation conditions are in place.

Instability is marginal in some spots but is enough to maintain storms formed in an environment with decidedly more instability.

sbcape.PNG
Surface based CAPE rates (in red) at the 3 PM hour and radar at 4:00 PM.

There is plenty of strong wind shear as well, which is more than plenty for organized severe weather. This helps result in the potential for damaging winds.

effective shear.PNG
Effective shear rate during the 3 PM hour.

Cold air aloft is contributing to steep lapse rates, which helps storm formation and survival, and aids the potential for large hail.

ll lapse.PNG
Steep low level lapse rates during the 3 PM hour. (Mid level lapse rates are about this steep as well.)

 

Low LCLs and backed surface winds contribute to the low chance of an isolated tornado, mainly in the western portions of our region and into eastern New York.

ALB
A special 2 PM Eastern (18Z) sounding at Albany, New York showing a low LCL and decisively backed winds.
18z hrrr
The 2 PM Eastern (18Z) HRRR shows slightly backed winds (at right) and a low LCL forecast for the evening at Orange, MA. Image via Bufkit (an NWS computer visualization program).

Finally, heavy rain and lightning are expected as well. The chance for storms should be over by 11 PM, but most likely will be prior to that. Storms should weaken as they get to the immediate coast and areas south of the Mass Pike.

Stay tuned to updates and warnings, and be ready to head to safety at a moment’s notice. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

Stay safe!
-Nathan

5/31/17 Severe Weather Update #1 (1:45 PM)

Good afternoon!

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has just been issued until 9 PM for western and central MA, all of NH (except Rockingham and Strafford counties in the southeast corner), northwest Maine, all of Vermont, and northwest Connecticut.

Expect another post in 60-90 minutes with updated details. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning, so keep an eye to the sky and weather updates. Severe weather is possible just outside of the watch area as well, so don’t be deceived by the watch box.

-Nathan