Rain For Some, Dry For Others + Joaquin Update

Good morning!

An atmospheric “squeeze play”, as called by the NWS Taunton technical discussion from 4:17 AM this morning, will rule over today’s weather. However, it should really only significantly impact the weather in southern New England. There is an area of high pressure to our north, and an offshore front to the southeast of New England, which has kept showers going in southeast New England. Throughout the day, the rain chance will move northwest; however, dry air will likely keep it from getting too far. Some areas may see 1-2 inches of rain, particularly Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard but north of the Mass Pike doesn’t stand much of a chance of seeing more than a quarter inch. Expect scattered showers between the Mass Pike and maybe near the MA/NH border. Much of Western and Northern New England don’t stand much of a chance, and the coast would be the most likely place to see any rain in NH or ME. However, expect widespread showers in southeast New England.

Today will be quite blustery, 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph for most; perhaps slightly higher in the higher elevations, and definitely windier along the SNE coast; 20-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph for most of the east coastal parts; south coastal parts plus the MA/RI islands and especially Cape Cod may see 25-35 mph, gusting to 50; NWS Taunton has a wind advisory out. Additionally, the Maine coast will be similar to the rest of the region: 10-20 mph, gusting to 30.

Today looks to be at the very least, a  cool and gray day for most of southern New England, if not rainy, and in northern New England, expect to be in a mix of sun and clouds for a large portion of today. High temperatures throughout New England will be 48-56.

Coastal flooding will also become a problem in some spots, and there is a coastal flood advisory in eastern MA and a coastal flood statement for the NH coast and far southwest Maine; this is for the 3 PM high tide.

As for Joaquin, the trend in the past 24 hours has been just about solidified: its closest pass will be several hundred miles offshore of Nantucket early Tuesday morning. Looks like an offshore storm, thankfully; we are not 100% out of the water but it’s looking more and more so that it will go safely offshore. I’m not sounding the all clear either, but I would say it is very likely we get away with mainly just high seas.

Have a great Friday!

-Nathan

Crisp and Cloudy

Good morning!

Today will be mostly cloudy throughout much of New England (some spots in Northern New England could see some clearing), with highs mainly between 50-60 in New England, except 60-67 in CT, RI, and southeast MA and scattered spots in eastern MA and southern NH. Some showers may begin to affect Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket this evening.

Breezy NNE winds will prevail, 15-25 mph, gusts up to 35 mph, highest at the coast.

Have a great day!

-Nathan

Rain Pulls Away

Good evening!

As evidenced by the image below, the widespread rain is pulling away and another line behind it in some parts of the area is associated with the cold front, bringing cooler and drier air behind it with a wind shift to mainly the north. Image is via the NWS radar mosaic for the Northeast, edited by me with Frontpainter.

438p 9 30 15

Winds will turn gusty overnight, especially near the coast: 15-25 mph, gusts up to 35 mph. I don’t have much time to update, as I am helping Dracut Access TV record tonight’s Dracut High volleyball game, but for the remainder of the evening, expect tapering showers.

Have a great evening!

-Nathan

Washout Today

Good morning!

Back this morning with an update on today’s multi-hazard event.

neweng

(Radar as of 5:38 AM)

Rain/Flooding

Expect a widespread 1-3″ south of the Mass Pike, and 2-5″ north of the Pike, with locally higher amounts throughout Northern New England; expect widespread totals of at least 3″ from about the MA/NH border north, as part of the range aforementioned. The heaviest rain will be from now through midday, but heavy rain is possible throughout the day, particularly in northern New England where widespread rain has been ongoing since yesterday evening and will throughout the afternoon. Urban flooding will likely become an issue, along with low-lying and poor drainage issues. There could also be issues with the faster-responding small streams and small rivers. Flash flooding is certainly a possibility this morning with widespread very heavy rain. For the majority of southern New England, most of this stuff will wrap up by the early to mid afternoon hours, with less widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms (see below) that would still likely produce heavy rain, due to high PWATs in place. Through Northern New England, the rain should gradually shut down through the afternoon and evening. Areal flood watches are in effect: (the lighter green in eastern New York and southwest Vermont is an areal flood advisory)

watches2

Thunderstorms/Severe Weather

There is a *very limited* severe weather threat today, with the primary hazard being damaging winds, in two segments: this morning and this afternoon. Limited instability should keep the threat down in both cases; however, a brief damaging wind event cannot be ruled out in any stronger convection this morning, and gusty winds to 40 mph would be more likely in most convection. In Southern New England this afternoon looks interesting, with the cold front passing through; still not expecting much instability, but it will be slightly more favorable; again, low chance of a severe wind report even with favorable shear, and with high helicities, an isolated brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out — but again, this is unlikely; the more likely scenario is that some stronger cells see 40 mph gusts. Still bears watching, however.

Wind

Throughout much of the day, not much of an issue, only slightly windy: onshore 10-20 mph, gusts to 25 mph, higher in strong convective showers and thunderstorms as noted. This evening, it could get windier near the coast as the front moves through; 20-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible into the overnight, with sustained winds increasing tomorrow – more on that this afternoon.

Coastal Flooding

Expect minor coastal flooding along parts of the south coast of Massachusetts/Rhode Island, and minor splashover along the NH/ME coast; a coastal flood advisory is in effect for south coastal MA and RI, and a coastal flood statement for NH/Maine up to near Portland. Beyond today, a coastal flood watch is in effect for the NH and Maine coasts to Portland, for possible minor to moderate coastal flooding tomorrow.

Have a great Wednesday, rainy as it is!

-Nathan

Very Heavy Rain Tomorrow

Good evening! Update post regarding the multi-hazard system tomorrow. I may do an update on the Friday and weekend rain threats later this evening; HOWEVER, I felt it was necessary to get the more immediately important info out first.

Rain/Flooding

This will be a big rainmaker, and the big story among this mess as well, with an area of low pressure in the Mid-Atlantic and a cold front nearthe west edge of precipitation. Rain will continue to move into the region through the evening – current doppler:

Capture

The rain will continue throughout the day tomorrow, heaviest in the northern two thirds of New England, and continue overnight Wednesday night before tapering off early Thursday morning to scattered showers throughout Thursday. When all is said and done, expect a widespread 2-5″, with locally higher totals, especially in Maine. There may be less than 2″ in the southern half of Southern New England.

In the areas of high vertical velocity (pink), expect very heavy rain at times – map valid for 2 PM tomorrow:nam_rapid-vvelprs-700-nepoolnerc-24-C-000

This will likely lead to some urban flooding problems, as well as problems in poor drainage and low-lying areas. The smaller and faster-responding rivers and streams could also see some issues. I am not expecting any issues in the main stem rivers, such as the Merrimack River and the Connecticut River. Do not drive your vehicle into areas where water covers the road. Move to higher ground if necessary. An areal flood watch is in effect for much of New England:

Capture2

Additionally, with very heavy rainfall in some spots, there is a concern for some flash flooding, with the very heavy rain around midday (also in the morning). Combined with the morning commute, this could become a serious situation.

Thunderstorms/Severe Weather

This is not a huge concern. Even though there are still some good shear and helicity values, which would often indicate a strong risk for damaging winds and perhaps an isolated, brief tornado, instability is going to be quite low tomorrow, which should limit severe weather chances tomorrow, even with decent lapse rates modeled. However, there may be enough instability to fire off a few embedded thunderstorms, with very heavy rain which could lead to additional flash flooding. As noted, favorable shear and helicity values are there, meaning the potential for strong to damaging winds and maybe a very isolated, very short-lived and weak tornado somewhere. It’s not likely, though, considering things against it.

Wind

This storm, by itself, will not be much of a wind maker for much of the duration. Just a little on the windy side. Onshore winds 10-20 mph, gusts to 25 mph. Winds could become an issue in the evening, mainly near the coast, with gusts of 30-40 mph possible Wednesday evening through Friday as the bulk of the rain begins leaving. An exception to this would be within any thunderstorms or stronger showers, with strong winds possible, and MAYBE a localized damaging gust as noted in the severe section above.

Coastal Flooding

There could be minor coastal flooding issues at the time of astronomical high tide Wednesday morning, mainly along the coast of southeast Massachusetts and coastal Rhode Island as well as the NH/Maine coast, with increasing seas and wind. More coastal flooding issues are possible at the high tides Wednesday evening and Thursday. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for south coastal MA/coastal RI, and a coastal flood watch for the NH/Maine coast to near Portland.

Current NWS Alerts

Areal Flood Watch for NW CT/Far Western MA/Southern VT; Areal Flood Watch for Central VermontAreal Flood Watch for Western/Central/NE MA, and Northern CTAreal Flood Watch for NH and Western MaineAreal Flood Watch for Eastern Maine; Coastal Flood Watch for NH/Maine Coast to Just East of PortlandCoastal Flood Advisory for South Coastal Southeast MA and Coastal RI. Colors are clickable links.

Have a good evening!

-Nathan

Significant Rain Likely – Warm Day First

Good morning! Let’s just cut to the basics of today’s forecast, because we have a significant rain event on the horizon.

Today will be partly sunny to start with increasing clouds throughout the day, and pretty much the exact same high temps as yesterday, maybe a nudge cooler. 70-80, region-wide, locally cooler in the highest elevations, a hair warmer in some spots in CT and perhaps isolated spots in eastern MA, with south winds to 10 mph again. Some isolated showers with a widely isolated rumble of thunder may occur late this morning into this afternoon, with eventually full-on widespread rain entering this evening into overnight tonight.

Let’s get into a discussion of hazards with this storm.

Timing

Let’s start with the timing for this storm. The widespread shield of rain will enter the region sometime this evening into the early overnight. A true washout is expected throughout New England tomorrow, no way around it. Precipitation will finally leave the region Thursday, probably around midday.

Rain/Thunderstorms/Flooding

A widespread 2-4″ of rain is likely across New England, with locally higher amounts possible within embedded thunderstorms, which will be possible due to elevated instability, particularly across Southern New England and adjacent Southern NH, starting Wednesday morning and continuing throughout the day. That instability will be on the elevated side, but it will not be high CAPE by any means; however, rather good shear is in place, meaning a strong to maybe even embedded severe thunderstorm is not out of the cards: (both images below are for the same time, at 1 km and 3 km. Not pictured, but 6 km shear is also rather strong).

nam---usne-36-C-shear0-3km_whitenam---usne-36-C-shear0-1km_white

Something interesting to note is there will be high helicity values for many. A spin-up tornado cannot be 100% ruled out; however, this is not an immediate concern, rather an interesting observation.

nam-hel--usne-36-C-hel3000_white nam-hel--usne-36-C-hel1000_white

Lifted index and lapse rates are looking better at the lower levels in the morning, however. More severe updates this evening.

The main story, however, is the 2-4″ of rain. Some of the smaller rivers may see rapid rises, but urban flooding is the main threat (especially in any embedded thunderstorms), as well as poor drainage and low lying areas. Main stem rivers, such as the Merrimack, Connecticut and Charles, should stay in their banks. An areal flood watch is out for a substantial portion of New England for this storm, in dark green on the map below.

watches

Coastal Flooding

Yes, this storm also has a coastal flood threat, even if rather minor. There could be some localized minor splashover during astronomical high tide Wednesday, as a result of increasing seas and said high tide. Wednesday evening, there may be a more significant coastal flood threat, and more coastal flooding is possible through the rest of the week.

Wind

This storm will not be a big wind producer, at least not near the surface. Expect northeast winds 10-15 mph, with highest gusts to 25-30 mph, locally higher in the evening for both sustained and gusts. HOWEVER, the exception will be within thunderstorms, where gusts near or even over 45 mph are possible. Can’t completely rule out an isolated severe wind within those, as mentioned.

Current Alerts: Flood Watch for Southern Vermont/Far Western MA/Northwest CTFlood Watch for Northern CT/Western, Central and Northeast MAFlood Watch for Central VermontFlood Watch for NH and Southwest Maine; Coastal Flood Watch for NH and Southwest Maine Coast.

Have a great Tuesday!

-Nathan

Warmer Day Today

Good morning!

With a south-southwesterly wind up to 10 mph and partly sunny skies, temperatures will be between 74-80 for much of New England; cooler in the highest elevations of northern New England, and scattered warmer spots in Connecticut and the CT River area in MA.

I’ll be back this evening with an update on the rain threat Tuesday PM into Thursday. Have a great day!

-Nathan

Chilly Start, Strong Bounceback

Good morning!

After much of New England got into the 30s last night, with even scattered locations in eastern MA getting below freezing, a nice bounceback will be on tap today. With south-southeast winds up to 10 mph and sunny skies (clouds moving in to southwest New England this evening), temperatures will be in the range of 65-73 for most of New England. There will also surely be some cooler spots, 60-65 in most of these, in some widely scattered areas of Northern New England (mainly northern Maine).

Have a great day!

-Nathan