Much Cooler Today; Low Pressure To Bring Much-Needed Rain

Good Thursday morning!

Many locations across New England achieved a heat wave yesterday, and virtually every location in New Hampshire hit 90 degrees, except Mt. Washington and a few isolated outliers. Even some locations at lower elevations *north* of Mount Washington hit 90. But that will not be the same today, with an area of weak low pressure riding up the coast. Despite the weakness of the storm, it is packing a ton of moisture with it, which will be the guide for the forecast.

Today will be cloudy for much of the day, but not before the already-warm temps in place allow temperatures to climb a couple degrees to the low 70s in northern Maine, mid 70s in central Maine, and upper 70s and low 80s just about everywhere else in New England, including the coast.

Dewpoints will fall in Northern New England to mainly the 50s through today; with some gradual drop through the 60s in northern SNE; southern SNE will have to wait the longest for relief – tomorrow afternoon they are finally down to the mid 60s.

The main forecast feature is that area of low pressure, with its center set to approach Nantucket tomorrow morning. However, precipitation will start prior to that; in far southern New England, precip from the low will begin early this afternoon or maybe even late this morning. Precipitation will spread over New England by mid to late evening, excluding eastern/northern Maine which may have to wait a bit longer, into the early overnight hours. Rain will be heavy at times, and with high precipitable water values (PWATs) in place, any stronger shower or thunderstorm may put out very heavy rain. Precipitation will leave southern New England by Friday evening, and will leave the six New England states early Saturday morning. Winds will generally be out of the northeast with the storm, making it the first Nor’easter of 2015-2016.

Virtually all in New England will see over 1″ precipitation, with many seeing 2″ and perhaps up to 3″ possible in spots.

There will be a risk of some embedded thunderstorms this evening, especially across southern New England. This is the only real concern for gusty winds, but no severe weather is currently anticipated.

Isolated flooding may be possible especially in thunderstorms, with the previously-noted high PWATs. Do not drive your vehicle where water covers the road.

gfs_pwat_neng_6

(GFS model PWATs at 2 AM Friday, around the peak of the storm. Most of New England will have high PWATs, with extremely heavy rain possible in the yellow and red areas where PWATs will be highest. Credit: WeatherBell)

For tonight’s Patriots game, rain will be the key, with temps staying fairly consistent, in the upper 60s to around 70 throughout the game. While it may be inconvenient for fans, coaches, and officials, the Pats do well in this kind of rainy weather, as evidenced by the last time they played a game that counted for something at home. (Despite the controversy about that game, it was very warm and a squall line passed through mid-game and during play. We know their track record during other rainy days, too.) I don’t think the fans will mind, though, considering Brady will be playing and that is all everyone cares about. Some thunderstorms can’t be ruled out during the game; if thunder/lightning does occur at or in the vicinity of Gillette Stadium, I hope the NFL and the Patriots make the correct decision to stop play and temporarily evacuate the stands.

With that said, have a good day and GO PATS!

-Nathan

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Chance of Strong Storms Today

Good morning! Quick update courtesy of being in a class with a computer and completing the original assignment.

With the cold front approaching New England, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms today. These storms could be strong to severe, mainly in northern New England, but there will still be a chance. No widespread severe weather is expected, but a few storms could approach severe limits. SPC has a marginal risk over northern New England today. Any severe storms would carry a primary risk of damaging winds, with isolated large hail not fully out of the question. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out, primarily across northern/eastern Maine where there will be decent helicities.

maine helicity

Some showers/storms have already fired west of New England, but are still a ways away; the closest one is along the International Border between New York and Quebec, southwest of Montreal. I can’t determine if the radar signal near Plattsburgh, NY is rain, biological signals, or something else.

radar

SPC has put out a mesoscale discussion noting a severe thunderstorm watch is currently not expected due to the marginal/isolated nature of severe weather. Stay tuned for possible severe weather warnings.

A watch indicates the possibility of severe weather; a warning means it is imminent. Move indoors immediately when any thunderstorm – severe or not – approaches.

Have a good day!

-Nathan

Another Steambath Expected – Record Highs Possible

Good morning! Another record- or near-record hot one expected today. Today will bring mainly south-southwesterly winds today, with some showers possible across mostly northern New England, but southern New England could also get in on some showers.

Highs to range between either side of 80 in northern Maine, low 80s along the east half of the coast, to the mid 80s to low 90s, across central Maine and the western half of the coast, to the low 90s in interior southern Maine; between the mid 80s in far northern New Hampshire, to the upper 80s across most of the state, and low 90s in parts of central and southern New Hampshire. Mid 90s are not out of the question in the Merrimack Valley south of and including Concord. In Vermont, expect between mid 80s in the Northeast Kingdom and the mountains to upper 80s and perhaps an isolated 90 degree reading along the New York border, and the southern half of the New Hampshire border. In Massachusetts, highs to range from around 80 on Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket and the immediate south coast to the mid 80s along the inland south coast and the highest elevations of the Berkshires, and the upper 80s and low 90s across most of the rest of the state, including the east coast. Low 90s are fairly certain in Northeast MA and the Boston Metro, with some mid-90s readings not fully out of the question in the Merrimack Valley. Rhode Island will be in the mid 80s, with upper 70s and low 80s at the immediate coast and upper 80s and some low 90s in northern parts. Connecticut will be in the upper 80s in interior southern, mid 80s at the coast, and low 90s in the northern half.

Again, a mainly mostly sunny to sunny day. HIgher humidity for today is expected with dewpoints mainly in the mid to upper 60s (lower in northern Maine).

Have a good day!

-Nathan

Very Hot Day Expected

Good morning!

The same mainly west-based winds are expected today. The temperatures will rise a bit along with the humidity, and some extremely hot conditions are possible in some locations. Make sure to keep hydrated, or stay in an air conditioned area.

Highs to range from the mid/upper 70s in northern Maine, to the low 80s across central Maine and extreme northern New Hampshire as well as Cape Cod and the MA/RI islands; mid-80s across much of Vermont and along much of the coast; upper 80s across southern Maine, central New Hampshire, southern Vermont and the Berkshires and the east coast of Massachusetts; low 90s to prevail across a large portion of western and central Massachusetts, southern New Hampshire, interior southeast Massachusetts, interior Rhode Island, much of Connecticut. Mid 90s will prevail in interior Eastern Massachusetts, the Merrimack Valley in south central New Hampshire, and isolated parts of the Connecticut Valley south of Greenfield, MA. An isolated 98-100 reading is not immediately likely, but nonetheless cannot be ruled out in Northeast Massachusetts, where some towns are forecast to go as high as 97, based on 5 AM temps already in the lower to mid 70s for some.

Boston’s all time record is 95 for today – totally achievable in most of the city – but considering the weather station is right at the water (Logan Airport), that might not happen. But there are some factors going for it, including the coast will be barely relief.

Dewpoints will be between the mid 60s and low 70s, with reductions possible into the upper 50s to mid 60s possible late day. Heat index values will be in the upper 80s or 90s for most, with values near 100 where temperatures are the highest.

Skies will generally be mostly sunny to sunny for most. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, mainly over Northern New England.

Stay safe in today’s heat. Stay in an air conditioned environment if possible, and if you cannot, drink plenty of water. Many schools predate the thought of air conditioning, making things worse due to the amount of people in the room at once. (Or, in my case, the school was expanded and basically rebuilt two years ago, on a 61% state funded overhaul, and there’s no A/C anywhere, except the main lobby and office. Good job, Dracut politicians.)

Have a good day!

-Nathan

A Beach or Cookout-Worthy Labor Day

Good morning!

The unofficial end to summer will bring conditions like that of midsummer, with sunny skies regionwide. With the wind no longer flowing onshore (now flowing from the west), summer conditions are primed to return. Today will be a perfect beach or cookout day.

Highs will range from the low to mid 80s in far northern Maine and far northern New Hampshire and the mountainous regions of Vermont, to the upper 80s across a large swath of central New Hampshire and not-as-far-north-but-still-northern New Hampshire, Vermont’s eastern and western borders, much of central and southeast Maine, the Berkshires of western Massachusetts, and areas near but not directly at south-coastal MA/RI/CT; lower 90s will prevail across most of Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut including much of the Boston metro; except the coast and the aforementioned regions. Highs may reach the mid 90s in the Connecticut Valley from Greenfield, MA to Hartford, CT, and the Merrimack Valley from the Concord, NH area to just east of Lawrence, MA.

Along the coast, between the low 80s in downeast Maine to the mid and upper 80s across southwest Maine, NH, and eastern MA coasts including much of Boston proper; back to the low 80s directly at south-coastal MA/RI/CT, except mid-80s in the NYC metro coast of southwest Connecticut. Cape Cod and the MA/RI Islands will stay in the 70s. Away from SE MA/RI/CT, areas just inland may be in the low 90s.

Generally sunny skies to prevail throughout much of the region. However, some clouds are possible across far northern New England associated with showers in southern Quebec, which may cross the International Border into mostly northern Maine but a shower cannot be ruled out across northern NH and northern VT,

Have a good Labor Day!

-Nathan

Cool Day Today

Good morning! Apologies for the late blog post; no school today and my 6-year-old sister has been trying her best to bother me!

Anyways, today will be dominated by a northeasterly flow bringing much cooler and drier conditions to New England. Highs will range from the upper 60s in Northern Maine; low 70s across the east coast of MA/NH/coastal ME; low to mid 70s across much of the rest of Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Massachusetts; south coastal MA, RI, CT will stay in the lower 70s along with Cape Cod and the MA/RI Islands. Interior RI, and Northeast and Northwest CT may reach the upper 70s, with interior Southern CT and the Hartford area around 80. Mostly sunny skies will prevail.

Have a wonderful day!

-Nathan

[2:35 PM] Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Today

[2:33 PM] Quick update. As expected, a few thunderstorms developed. Earlier, these were generally expected to be isolated thunder/fairly weak, and mostly in southern NH and MA. As it turns out, there are two severe thunderstorm warnings in Maine, and another storm near severe limits in Maine and two others along the ME/NH line holding similar status. Radar as of 2:33 PM:

235 pm

Stay safe. I will be tweeting warnings on @ncoram_wx – also stay tuned to local media for urgent updates. There is also a strong/severe storm near the NY/VT border.

-Nathan