Warm, Dry Day Ahead

Good morning!

Today will feature a return to the warm and dry pattern – albeit nowhere close to last week’s heat. A west wind will occur again, with winds light for most in SNE, and in NNE, winds to around 10 mph, occasional gusts to 20 mph; however this may be confined to the mountains.

Skies today will be sunny throughout New England. The main player will be high pressure centered in the PA/NJ/SE NY region, bringing us these warm and dry conditions. Not expecting any shower threat today, plain and simple.

Today’s temps bring us from the lower 70s across northern Maine, northern New Hampshire, and northeast/north-central, the mountainous regions, and southern Vermont, and far western Massachusetts. Mid 70s in west central New Hampshire, a few spots in northern and central Maine, and parts of Connecticut’s Litchfield Hills. Upper 70s central Massachusetts, southwest and much of central New Hampshire, eastern Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island. Low to isolated mid 80s in eastern and southeast Massachusetts, western Cape Cod, most of Connecticut, and south central and southeast New Hampshire. Southern Maine as well as all of Rhode Island (excluding Block Island, see above) will be between the upper 70s and low 80s.

Owing to the aforementioned westerly flow, the coast will barely be cooler than the land nearby (eastern Cape Cod the exception, as well as the MA/RI Islands). Should be a nice beach day if you both like the beach and have today off.

Big feature of today: LOW HUMIDITY. Sure, it will be a touch warm, but it will still be a beautiful day to go outside if you can.

We will go into a warming trend for the next few days, followed by a potential return to fall-like weather late this weekend and especially into early next week. The cooldown is inevitable, considering the lowering sun angle, a ridge won’t mean 80s eternally.

The unfortunate part about this, is this will be an extremely boring stretch for weather geeks. Hey, at least I have homework to do, and hockey is coming back!

Have a good day!

-Nathan

Advertisements

Beautiful Fall Day Ahead

Good morning!

Today will be, for most, a beautiful day that has all the makings of your average fall day. It will be difficult for most to break 70 degrees, and some will not break 60. A westerly wind flow will prevail with winds 10-15 mph at times, occasionally gusting to 25 mph, and the direction will help make the beaches of Massachusetts some of the warmest locations. Highs will range from the upper 50s in northern New Hampshire, parts of northeast Vermont as well as its mountains, and far northern and northwest Maine, to the low 60s in western and southeastern Vermont, central and southwest New Hampshire, western Massachusetts, and central and northern Maine; mid 60s in central Massachusetts and the Connecticut Valley of MA, and areas near Concord, NH and some areas of central Maine. Upper 60s and some low 70s to prevail in southern Maine, southeast New Hampshire, eastern Massachusetts and southwest Connecticut as well as the Hartford area of north-central Connecticut.

Skies today will be mostly sunny to sunny in southern New England, and mostly cloudy across much of northern New England.

There will be a chance of showers this afternoon, primarily across northern New England. These showers will pull into the region from southern Quebec and give that area more rain, associated with the surface low that is starting to pull away from the region. No thunder expected at this time, but this could give nice additional rain. New England is in a mini-drought, could use all the water we can get. To the prior note, thunder cannot be 100% ruled out with the low pulling away and decent lift (especially downeast Maine), but again, not immediately likely.

For now, showers in northern Maine are pulling into New Brunswick and Quebec.528-9-31-15

Some precipitation is also possible in Vermont this morning, with scattered showers this morning, but the better chance this afternoon. In addition, scattered showers may move through western Massachusetts this morning with showers in and near east central New York.

kenx

Have a good day!

-Nathan

Cloudy With Afternoon Showers and Evening Rain

Good morning!

After last night’s rain pulled out we were left with a cloudy New England this morning. Before we get to this afternoon’s shower/storm risk, temperatures today will be mostly in the 60s, with isolated upper 50s in the northern New England mountains and isolated low 70s some parts of Eastern Massachusetts with more widespread readings of 70-75 across Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts; rare instance where Cape Cod and the MA/RI islands will be one of the warmest spots. Skies will generally be cloudy today.

This morning and early afternoon should be dry. Mid-afternoon is where things get interesting with a complex of low pressures; a mesolow will form in eastern NY and another low will pass just SE of Nantucket. This will allow a chance of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and more widespread rain this evening into the early overnight. A very scattered storm may go severe with a gust of damaging wind and/or a brief, weak tornado not fully out of the question; however there is barely any instability, and the risk of any severe weather as such is extremely low but non-zero. The areas of low pressure however will allow that area of widespread showers to form as the evening goes on, with areas of heavy rain possible.

Have a good day!

-Nathan

Beautiful Saturday

Good morning!

I had wanted to begin my morning blogging routine at a slightly later time for weekends but this is late, due to routine bloodwork earlier this morning.

Anyways, after some early fog which is finally burning off, an amazing day is on tap regionwide associated with an area of high pressure. Mostly sunny to sunny skies will be the rule, and highs to range between the lower 70s in northern Maine, to the mid 70s across much of northern New England as well as interior southeast Massachusetts; also include the Monadnocks and Worcester Hills in NH/MA. Low to mid 70s at the coast region-wide. Upper 70s across most of western and northeast Massachusetts, interior southeast New Hampshire and interior southwest Maine, as well as the Burlington, Vermont area. Warmest temps, around 80, in the Connecticut and Merrimack Valleys.

Clouds will be on the increase late today as widespread showers begin moving into Western New England late this evening and into tonight, associated with the low bringing tomorrow’s weather.

Have a great day!

-Nathan

Noon Update – Rain Pulling Out Fast

Hello, New England.

Earlier this morning, I had stated that rain would leave Maine through this evening. At that point, guidance was effectively split: 50/50 between a later end and an earlier end. I had decided to go with the later end, because if I had predicted an earlier end, and it left slower, some people might not be very happy. With human error, I completely forgot to evaluate the motion of the precipitation. No less, rain is right now beginning to leave Eastern Maine and is out of the remainder of New England, with skies starting to clear across Southern and Western New England. For this forecast screw-up, I apologize; and this can be considered a learning lesson. If you want to go into meteorology, you learn lessons pretty fast as I am. You learn a lesson every day.

Anyways, with the earlier end occurring, it means more sun. A large portion of New England will hit the low to mid 70s, with slightly cooler temps in northern and eastern Maine (mid to upper 60s) and perhaps warmest temps in Connecticut and Vermont, where clearing occurred first. Skies will become partly sunny through the remainder of the day.

Errors happen. But, errors make one better, with incremental learning. Errors will ultimately make me and other weather geeks better for the future, even though we hate when they happen.

Have a good afternoon and evening!

-Nathan

Rain Ends Throughout The Day

Hello, New England. Even though it is Friday, it is probably inappropriate to use “good morning” today, as today is a Day of Remembrance, to remember the nearly 3,000 innocent victims of the horrific attack on America 14 years ago this morning.

Anyways, rain will gradually pull out of New England today. Right now widespread rain is occurring:

514a-9-11-15

As you can tell, most of the precipitation is pulling away from Southern New England at this time. Scattered showers are possible there throughout the day, but the action generally shits to Northern New England and especially Maine as it already seems to have. Widespread rain should exit southern (and nearby northwest) New England by late morning, with possible lingering showers around the MA/NH border through early afternoon. Across Maine, steady rain cuts off from west to east this evening into the early overnight. Again, widespread 1-2″+ rain from this event, some higher amounts. Rain has already ended across much of Connecticut, Rhode Island, Western Massachusetts, and Northwest Vermont. This rain is slow moving, but should be out relatively fast in the rest of SNE (a few hours, as noted). True washout in Maine today.

Temperatures probably don’t even matter today, unless you are a student or teacher in a school without air conditioning like I am a student at, then this is further relief. But highs ranging from the low 60s across northern and eastern Maine, to the mid to upper 60s across western Maine and northern New Hampshire; upper 60s to low 70s across all of southern New England as well as southern New Hampshire, parts of southwest Maine, and most of Vermont. Mid 70s will be possible in some scattered locations, mostly Connecticut and in Northwest Vermont, two areas where the rain left first. Concord, NH, being a hotspot of warmth on many days, could conceivably do it too. Skies will remain cloudy today.

Another update in the evening.

-Nathan

9/10/15 Evening Update

Good evening!

Today has been crazy forecast wise. Timing is throwing everything off; but steady to heavy rain will be likely overnight in most of New England. Further details in tomorrow’s blog about when it ends.

For the main show: Patriots vs. Steelers at Gillette Stadium. There is a break in the heavy precipitation for the most part in SNE, as evidenced by KBOX doppler radar, as precip moves NNE into NNE (north-northeast into Northern New England).

808p-8-10

Precipitation will approach Foxboro for the second half; we know Brady and the Pats’ track record in bad weather! National mosaic radar specifically covering the Northeast and New England shows the scope of additional rain, moving NNE with the low.

811-9-10

A flash flood watch is in effect for all of Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island (excluding western CT and extreme western MA); until midnight in southeast MA, Cape Cod and the Islands as well as Rhode Island (excluding Northern and Western Providence County). Across CT, and western, central, and northeast MA and the Boston area plus northern and western Providence County, RI, the watch expires at 6 AM.

Have a safe evening and GO PATS!

-Nathan