Cool Day Today

Good morning! Apologies for the late blog post; no school today and my 6-year-old sister has been trying her best to bother me!

Anyways, today will be dominated by a northeasterly flow bringing much cooler and drier conditions to New England. Highs will range from the upper 60s in Northern Maine; low 70s across the east coast of MA/NH/coastal ME; low to mid 70s across much of the rest of Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Massachusetts; south coastal MA, RI, CT will stay in the lower 70s along with Cape Cod and the MA/RI Islands. Interior RI, and Northeast and Northwest CT may reach the upper 70s, with interior Southern CT and the Hartford area around 80. Mostly sunny skies will prevail.

Have a wonderful day!

-Nathan

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[2:35 PM] Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Today

[2:33 PM] Quick update. As expected, a few thunderstorms developed. Earlier, these were generally expected to be isolated thunder/fairly weak, and mostly in southern NH and MA. As it turns out, there are two severe thunderstorm warnings in Maine, and another storm near severe limits in Maine and two others along the ME/NH line holding similar status. Radar as of 2:33 PM:

235 pm

Stay safe. I will be tweeting warnings on @ncoram_wx – also stay tuned to local media for urgent updates. There is also a strong/severe storm near the NY/VT border.

-Nathan

Backdoor Cold Front; Relief After Today

Good morning! Today will feature some more clouds, and a chance for some thunderstorms, especially in northern MA and southern NH. Winds will generally turn north or northeast, mostly light; some spots up to 10 mph with some exceptions. Nonetheless, mainly high clouds are expected for those who see clouds and it will remain mostly sunny to sunny.

Highs today will range from the mid to upper 60s in far northern Maine to around 90 in the Connecticut and Merrimack river valleys; in between, low 70s are likely throughout more of the northern half (but not necessarily far-northern) of Maine, with upper 70s to mid-80s in southern Maine, warmer as you get closer to the coast (but cooling off at the immediate coast, to high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.) Across New Hampshire, highs will range from the mid to upper 70s in northern New Hampshire, to the low to mid 80s across central New Hampshire, and the mid 80s across most of southern New Hampshire (with upper 80s and perhaps a 90 reading in the Merrimack River Valley from Concord south to the MA border); highs will be in the upper 70s at the coast. In Vermont, lower to mid 80s along the western and eastern state borders, and around 80 elsewhere. In Massachusetts, highs range from the upper 70s on outer (eastern) Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket to the low 80s on the remainder of the coast (including southern/western Cape Cod); low 80s also prevail in parts of the Berkshires. Mid 80s to be the rule across western Mass., as well as areas near but not right at the coast plus southeast Massachusetts; upper 80s will be widespread across central and northeast Mass. and much of the Boston metro. Upper 80s and low 90s to prevail across the Merrimack Valley west of Lawrence, and the Connecticut Valley south of the Vermont/NH tripoint. Rhode Island will range from 80 to 90, lowest south, highest north. Connecticut will be ranging from the mid 80s to 90, except around 80 at the coastline – warmest temps along the Connecticut (River) Valley.

A backdoor cold front for most today will bring relief tomorrow in the form of much cooler temperatures.

There will be a chance of thunderstorms, particularly in S. New England and the southern third of N. New England; no severe weather is expected, as these storms will mostly be triggered by some instability aloft, with little shear to work with.

The HRRR shows these as mainly harmless showers in mainly southern NH:hrrr_ref_boston_16

No less, lightning is a leading killer; if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Heavy rain and gusty wind can’t be ruled out either.

Have a good day!

-Nathan

Hot and Sunny Conditions Expected

Good morning! A primarily west and southwesterly flow is expected today along with generally light winds, bringing a hot day to much of New England.  Skies will be sunny for most in the region, and highs will range from the mid to upper 70s in northern Maine, to the lower 80s across a large portion of Vermont and much of northern New Hampshire, Northwest Maine, the Massachusetts South Coast, as well as the immediate coastline across much of the remainder of the area (including Portland). Temperatures either side of 80 will exist on Cape Cod and the MA Islands (including Block Island, RI). Middle 80s will prevail in the Burlington, Montpelier, and much of the Connecticut River area in Vermont, as well as much of southern and downeast Maine, with isolated upper 80s. Upper 80s will dominate in northwest Connecticut, western Massachusetts, as well as central and southwest New Hampshire and much of southwest Maine, where some lower 90s are possible. Lower 90s are likely throughout eastern and central Massachusetts, south central and southeast New Hampshire, the Connecticut River Valley of CT and MA (including Hartford) and as noted, some 90 readings are possible into southwest and even west central Maine. Middle 80s to 90 will prevail in the immediate Boston area as well. Lower to maybe even mid 90s are forecast in the Merrimack River Valley between Concord, NH and Lawrence, MA, also including Manchester, Nashua, and Lowell. The models suck with this place, so instead of digging all day, I went to see what NWS Gray thinks Mount Washington may even reach the middle 60s, which is impressive considering the average high for September is in the mid-to-upper 60s.

(Anyone who has seen model temp maps know that they don’t handle Mount Washington well, at least not in early September. The all-time record at Mt. Washington is 72, in June 2003 and August 1975 per the observatory, and the only model remotely close to the reasonable mid-60s temp for today is the Hires NAM at 73. Other guidance has it around 80. This is why a human element is crucial to meteorology.)

Dewpoints will be in the 60s throughout New England.

Have a good day!

-Nathan

Blog Update – 9/2/15

Good evening,

This post is to inform of the potential of there being no blog post for tomorrow, September 2, 2015. While I am trying to get into this routine, tomorrow is the first day of my sophomore year of high school, and while I am setting my alarms early enough to hopefully get a post out, there’s a decent chance it ends up being a wild morning anyways before school even starts. If there is no post, I may put out a special post tomorrow evening instead. Apologies for any inconvenience.

-Nathan

Coastal Relief Today, Otherwise Hot and Not as Humid

Good morning! Today is Monday, September 1, signaling the beginning of meteorological autumn (or fall – I find myself using both). But with a ridge of high pressure. we will remain mainly dry and hot for the foreseeable future, with the caveat of today, as a cold front will affect mainly coastal regions. There will be generally light winds, starting out in a general northerly direction for most before shifting to a west wind across inland areas, and an onshore flow at the coast. Brilliant sun is likely throughout New England today, with perhaps some scattered high clouds.

Guidance is split on the effects of a minor backdoor cold front and the associated wind shift along and near the coast; at least regarding how far inland effects reach; that is the only real uncertainty for today.

Highs today will reach the low to mid 70s in Northern and Eastern Maine; the mid 70s across much of northern Vermont, higher elevations and the far northern extent of northern New Hampshire; extreme northwest Maine; and just about anywhere that’s right against a coast; upper 70s across much of the remainder of Vermont; the lower elevations of northern New Hampshire; much of interior central Maine, and just about anywhere that’s near but not right at the coast. Lower 80s in inland eastern Massachusetts, interior southwest and west-central Maine, the Connecticut River Valley of east-central Vermont, much of central New Hampshire away from the Concord/Merrimack River area, the Berkshires; interior southeast Massachusetts; and much of southern Vermont; middle 80s in a large swath of the rest of Massachusetts, southern New Hampshire, and northern Connecticut; localized upper 80s are possible in this region.

Dewpoints will be dry across the region, between the upper 40s for dewpoints in northeast Maine and the low to mid 60s in southwest Connecticut; dewpoints in the 50s will be the rule for much of New England today. Dewpoints in the lower 60s also cannot be ruled out right along the eastern coast from Portland southward. Dewpoints will begin rising in the late evening hours.

Have a good day!

-Nathan

8/31/15 – Welcome!

Welcome to my new weather blog! I’m Nathan Coram – a sophomore at Dracut High School, and an aspiring meteorologist. I plan to post forecasts/blog updates daily here, starting soon, as a presence expansion in addition to my Twitter account. Forecasts will generally be for the Dracut, Mass. area, but will also include other areas of New England. As long as I can get into the habit, there will be updates. I already do a weather report Friday mornings over the DHS intercom – while I am preferring a NWS or private sector meteorology career path, the intercom report is mostly because it is an efficient way for students, faculty and administrators – particularly those not on social media – to be in the know about dangerous weather, and to plan their weekend beach or skiing trip during calmer weather.

-Nathan