Noon Update – Rain Pulling Out Fast

Hello, New England.

Earlier this morning, I had stated that rain would leave Maine through this evening. At that point, guidance was effectively split: 50/50 between a later end and an earlier end. I had decided to go with the later end, because if I had predicted an earlier end, and it left slower, some people might not be very happy. With human error, I completely forgot to evaluate the motion of the precipitation. No less, rain is right now beginning to leave Eastern Maine and is out of the remainder of New England, with skies starting to clear across Southern and Western New England. For this forecast screw-up, I apologize; and this can be considered a learning lesson. If you want to go into meteorology, you learn lessons pretty fast as I am. You learn a lesson every day.

Anyways, with the earlier end occurring, it means more sun. A large portion of New England will hit the low to mid 70s, with slightly cooler temps in northern and eastern Maine (mid to upper 60s) and perhaps warmest temps in Connecticut and Vermont, where clearing occurred first. Skies will become partly sunny through the remainder of the day.

Errors happen. But, errors make one better, with incremental learning. Errors will ultimately make me and other weather geeks better for the future, even though we hate when they happen.

Have a good afternoon and evening!

-Nathan

Rain Ends Throughout The Day

Hello, New England. Even though it is Friday, it is probably inappropriate to use “good morning” today, as today is a Day of Remembrance, to remember the nearly 3,000 innocent victims of the horrific attack on America 14 years ago this morning.

Anyways, rain will gradually pull out of New England today. Right now widespread rain is occurring:

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As you can tell, most of the precipitation is pulling away from Southern New England at this time. Scattered showers are possible there throughout the day, but the action generally shits to Northern New England and especially Maine as it already seems to have. Widespread rain should exit southern (and nearby northwest) New England by late morning, with possible lingering showers around the MA/NH border through early afternoon. Across Maine, steady rain cuts off from west to east this evening into the early overnight. Again, widespread 1-2″+ rain from this event, some higher amounts. Rain has already ended across much of Connecticut, Rhode Island, Western Massachusetts, and Northwest Vermont. This rain is slow moving, but should be out relatively fast in the rest of SNE (a few hours, as noted). True washout in Maine today.

Temperatures probably don’t even matter today, unless you are a student or teacher in a school without air conditioning like I am a student at, then this is further relief. But highs ranging from the low 60s across northern and eastern Maine, to the mid to upper 60s across western Maine and northern New Hampshire; upper 60s to low 70s across all of southern New England as well as southern New Hampshire, parts of southwest Maine, and most of Vermont. Mid 70s will be possible in some scattered locations, mostly Connecticut and in Northwest Vermont, two areas where the rain left first. Concord, NH, being a hotspot of warmth on many days, could conceivably do it too. Skies will remain cloudy today.

Another update in the evening.

-Nathan

9/10/15 Evening Update

Good evening!

Today has been crazy forecast wise. Timing is throwing everything off; but steady to heavy rain will be likely overnight in most of New England. Further details in tomorrow’s blog about when it ends.

For the main show: Patriots vs. Steelers at Gillette Stadium. There is a break in the heavy precipitation for the most part in SNE, as evidenced by KBOX doppler radar, as precip moves NNE into NNE (north-northeast into Northern New England).

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Precipitation will approach Foxboro for the second half; we know Brady and the Pats’ track record in bad weather! National mosaic radar specifically covering the Northeast and New England shows the scope of additional rain, moving NNE with the low.

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A flash flood watch is in effect for all of Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island (excluding western CT and extreme western MA); until midnight in southeast MA, Cape Cod and the Islands as well as Rhode Island (excluding Northern and Western Providence County). Across CT, and western, central, and northeast MA and the Boston area plus northern and western Providence County, RI, the watch expires at 6 AM.

Have a safe evening and GO PATS!

-Nathan

Heavy Rain Approaches Far Southern New England

Update 10:40 AM The WPC just issued a Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion regarding flash flood potential for the Boston-New York-Washington corridor, including much of MA/CT/RI, into Southern NH and Southwest Maine.

Good morning! More spare time in a place with a computer…we know what that means…with precip in New England, quick blog update. (I am using the WordPress for Android app to transfer RadarScope images to the computer.)

Some showers and thunderstorms are already in, and more approaching, Southeast Massachusetts. Very heavy rain is falling as noted by a Special Weather Statement and some isolated flooding is possible in addition to frequent lightning.

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More rain is on the way, and there’s more beyond this particular image:

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Another update coming later. Have a good rest of your morning!

-Nathan

Much Cooler Today; Low Pressure To Bring Much-Needed Rain

Good Thursday morning!

Many locations across New England achieved a heat wave yesterday, and virtually every location in New Hampshire hit 90 degrees, except Mt. Washington and a few isolated outliers. Even some locations at lower elevations *north* of Mount Washington hit 90. But that will not be the same today, with an area of weak low pressure riding up the coast. Despite the weakness of the storm, it is packing a ton of moisture with it, which will be the guide for the forecast.

Today will be cloudy for much of the day, but not before the already-warm temps in place allow temperatures to climb a couple degrees to the low 70s in northern Maine, mid 70s in central Maine, and upper 70s and low 80s just about everywhere else in New England, including the coast.

Dewpoints will fall in Northern New England to mainly the 50s through today; with some gradual drop through the 60s in northern SNE; southern SNE will have to wait the longest for relief – tomorrow afternoon they are finally down to the mid 60s.

The main forecast feature is that area of low pressure, with its center set to approach Nantucket tomorrow morning. However, precipitation will start prior to that; in far southern New England, precip from the low will begin early this afternoon or maybe even late this morning. Precipitation will spread over New England by mid to late evening, excluding eastern/northern Maine which may have to wait a bit longer, into the early overnight hours. Rain will be heavy at times, and with high precipitable water values (PWATs) in place, any stronger shower or thunderstorm may put out very heavy rain. Precipitation will leave southern New England by Friday evening, and will leave the six New England states early Saturday morning. Winds will generally be out of the northeast with the storm, making it the first Nor’easter of 2015-2016.

Virtually all in New England will see over 1″ precipitation, with many seeing 2″ and perhaps up to 3″ possible in spots.

There will be a risk of some embedded thunderstorms this evening, especially across southern New England. This is the only real concern for gusty winds, but no severe weather is currently anticipated.

Isolated flooding may be possible especially in thunderstorms, with the previously-noted high PWATs. Do not drive your vehicle where water covers the road.

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(GFS model PWATs at 2 AM Friday, around the peak of the storm. Most of New England will have high PWATs, with extremely heavy rain possible in the yellow and red areas where PWATs will be highest. Credit: WeatherBell)

For tonight’s Patriots game, rain will be the key, with temps staying fairly consistent, in the upper 60s to around 70 throughout the game. While it may be inconvenient for fans, coaches, and officials, the Pats do well in this kind of rainy weather, as evidenced by the last time they played a game that counted for something at home. (Despite the controversy about that game, it was very warm and a squall line passed through mid-game and during play. We know their track record during other rainy days, too.) I don’t think the fans will mind, though, considering Brady will be playing and that is all everyone cares about. Some thunderstorms can’t be ruled out during the game; if thunder/lightning does occur at or in the vicinity of Gillette Stadium, I hope the NFL and the Patriots make the correct decision to stop play and temporarily evacuate the stands.

With that said, have a good day and GO PATS!

-Nathan

Chance of Strong Storms Today

Good morning! Quick update courtesy of being in a class with a computer and completing the original assignment.

With the cold front approaching New England, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms today. These storms could be strong to severe, mainly in northern New England, but there will still be a chance. No widespread severe weather is expected, but a few storms could approach severe limits. SPC has a marginal risk over northern New England today. Any severe storms would carry a primary risk of damaging winds, with isolated large hail not fully out of the question. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out, primarily across northern/eastern Maine where there will be decent helicities.

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Some showers/storms have already fired west of New England, but are still a ways away; the closest one is along the International Border between New York and Quebec, southwest of Montreal. I can’t determine if the radar signal near Plattsburgh, NY is rain, biological signals, or something else.

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SPC has put out a mesoscale discussion noting a severe thunderstorm watch is currently not expected due to the marginal/isolated nature of severe weather. Stay tuned for possible severe weather warnings.

A watch indicates the possibility of severe weather; a warning means it is imminent. Move indoors immediately when any thunderstorm – severe or not – approaches.

Have a good day!

-Nathan

Another Steambath Expected – Record Highs Possible

Good morning! Another record- or near-record hot one expected today. Today will bring mainly south-southwesterly winds today, with some showers possible across mostly northern New England, but southern New England could also get in on some showers.

Highs to range between either side of 80 in northern Maine, low 80s along the east half of the coast, to the mid 80s to low 90s, across central Maine and the western half of the coast, to the low 90s in interior southern Maine; between the mid 80s in far northern New Hampshire, to the upper 80s across most of the state, and low 90s in parts of central and southern New Hampshire. Mid 90s are not out of the question in the Merrimack Valley south of and including Concord. In Vermont, expect between mid 80s in the Northeast Kingdom and the mountains to upper 80s and perhaps an isolated 90 degree reading along the New York border, and the southern half of the New Hampshire border. In Massachusetts, highs to range from around 80 on Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket and the immediate south coast to the mid 80s along the inland south coast and the highest elevations of the Berkshires, and the upper 80s and low 90s across most of the rest of the state, including the east coast. Low 90s are fairly certain in Northeast MA and the Boston Metro, with some mid-90s readings not fully out of the question in the Merrimack Valley. Rhode Island will be in the mid 80s, with upper 70s and low 80s at the immediate coast and upper 80s and some low 90s in northern parts. Connecticut will be in the upper 80s in interior southern, mid 80s at the coast, and low 90s in the northern half.

Again, a mainly mostly sunny to sunny day. HIgher humidity for today is expected with dewpoints mainly in the mid to upper 60s (lower in northern Maine).

Have a good day!

-Nathan