The Windy Rain Begins

Good evening!

Winds are beginning to kick up regionwide, as heavy rain moves into New England. Let’s go into the big details again, with some minor tweaks:

Timing

Rain is beginning to overspread the region now; expect the worst of the storm to be between 2-8 AM tonight/tomorrow morning, for the start of the morning rush hour. Rain will taper to scattered showers through midday Thursday, with the event being all done by late evening tomorrow. Tomorrow’s rush hour will be very messy, so take it slow en route to your destination; allow extra travel time.

Rain

Expect a widespread 1-2″ of rain, with 2-3″ in localized spots. The rain will be heavy at times, which may lead to localized ponding of water. The heaviest rain will occur between 2-8 AM tomorrow morning, when the combination of high PWATs, strongest forcing, and high vertical velocities, will be in place. Rain will taper to scattered showers around midday Thursday.

Wind

Wind advisories are in effect along the coast and mountains, where gusts mainly of 50-60 mph can be expected. Elsewhere, expect gusts mainly up to 40 mph; off of a south wind; this may be enough to blow around weak lawn furniture, knock isolated tree branches down (potentially leading to widely scattered power outages), and lots of raking to do this weekend as the combination of rain and wind defoliates many trees. Also, higher gusts will be possible in any thunderstorms – see severe below.

Severe

With high shear and high helicity, there will be a severe weather potential tomorrow morning in any thunderstorms. Low instability will certainly play a huge role in keeping these mainly weak. But the high shear/helicity is still very much a concern for tomorrow morning; it cannot be ruled out that we may see some isolated wind gusts up to 70 mph, and perhaps even a weak/brief tornado is not out of the question. This combined with already high synoptic-based winds has led me to put a moderate damaging wind threat, even with low CAPE. Nonetheless there is still a fair possibility the entire severe threat busts, but still, keep your eyes and ears on the lookout for any potential weather warnings tomorrow morning.

Severe_1_2

Coastal Flooding

There may be some minor-moderate coastal flooding along the Maine coast at tonight’s high tide, where there is (along with the NH coastline) a coastal flood watch that will likely be changed to a warning or advisory in the next 4 hours. Along the MA, RI and SE CT coasts there is an advisory in place.

Have a good evening, and stay safe!

-Nathan

Windy, Rainy, Severe??

Good morning!

First, let’s cut right to today’s temperatures: highs 45-60, coolest northern mountains, warmest far southern New England. With that out of the way, let’s dive into details with the system making its way here.

This system is a combination of a low near the Great Lakes and the remnants of Hurricane Patricia.

Timing

Rain will begin making its way into New England, from southwest to northeast, late this morning through mid-evening. By late evening the rain should have overspread the region; expect the worst of the storm to be between 1-7 AM Thursday morning, in time for the start of the Thursday rush hour. Rain will taper to scattered showers through midday Thursday, with the event being all done by late evening Thursday.

Rain

Expect a widespread 1-2″ of rain, with 2-3″ in localized spots. The rain will be heavy at times, which may lead to localized ponding of water; high PWATs (highly moist atmosphere) – and these are very high PWATs for late October!! – will allow for this heavy rain, and high vertical velocities at times support this. The heaviest rain will occur between 1-7 AM Thursday, when the combination of high PWATs and high vertical velocities, among other favorable aspects, will exist. Rain will taper to scattered showers around midday Thursday.

Wind

With screaming winds aloft, some of these will mix down to the surface; expect winds becoming southeast with gusts mostly up to 40 mph in the lower elevations inland with localized gusts to 60 mph; and gusts mainly to 50-55 mph with isolated gusts to 60 mph at the coast and in the mountains. This may be enough to knock down some small tree limbs, blow around very loose lawn furniture, maybe even take down a weak power line (this would be most likely caused by a tree limb/branch though); and will likely cause a big mess in your yard, bringing down the foliage (raking season!) as well as lots of sticks. There may be higher gusts within embedded thunderstorms (see “Severe” section).

Severe

With high shear and high helicity in place, especially at the low levels, there will be a severe weather threat for Thursday morning. Limiting factors here will be mostly unimpressive instability; however it may be good enough to fire off a few embedded thunderstorms. With that high shear/low CAPE setup potential along with good helicity, we may see some isolated wind gusts 60-70 mph in a scattered thunderstorm or two. A weak/brief tornado is not out of the question. This threat will continue to evolve as we get closer; stay tuned for my update later today. In recap, expect the potential for an isolated severe thunderstorm.

Coastal Flooding

Minor to moderate coastal flooding is likely at the high tides today and tonight, due to the recent full moon, strong SE winds and this low pressure. Coastal flood advisories are in effect for the SNE coast as well as the NH coast for today’s midday high tide and a coastal flood advisory is out for the SNE coast for tonight, while NH and Maine’s coastlines are under a coastal flood watch for that timeframe.

Another update coming some time this afternoon or evening – half day of school in Dracut today.

Enjoy your Wednesday morning!

-Nathan

A Windy Rainstorm

Good evening!

This special blog post will detail the hazards involved with the windy rainstorm headed our way.

Timing

Rain will move into western New England around noon tomorrow and overspread the region by mid-late evening. The height of the storm, also with the strongest winds will be overnight Wednesday night, with rain tapering off to scattered showers by midday Thursday.

Rain

This will be the main story here. A messy commute will exist Wednesday evening and Thursday morning; when all is set and done, expect widespread periods of heavy rain and consistent steady rain, ultimately leading to a widespread 0.75 inch to 1.5 inches of rain, with some localized spots likely to see 1.5 to 2″ of rain (an isolated higher reading is not fully out of the question). The heaviest rain will occur overnight Wednesday night into the Thursday morning commute; some localized ponding of water is possible.

Wind

With very strong winds aloft, some of this will mix down to the surface; expect south-southeast based winds with widespread gusts to 40 mph and localized gusts to 60 mph possible, especially in heavier showers and embedded thunderstorms, as well as near the coast; strongest winds overnight Wednesday night into the Thursday morning commute. This will likely lead to isolated downed limbs, etc., the normal stuff with strong winds, along with difficulty driving high profile vehicles.

Severe

With elevated instability over southern New England during the Thursday morning commute, along with strong shear and helicity down to the low levels, an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out early Thursday, with damaging winds being the primary hazard; helicity values may however support an isolated tornado. That is not expected at this point, though, due to the rare nature of such events in these types of setups*; limited instability is a primary factor to limit severe.

*It has happened, though; don’t let your guard down Thursday morning, but I don’t think any severe weather is likely. More likely, an embedded thunderstorm or two would bring isolated higher wind gusts.

Coastal Flooding

With the recent full moon, this low pressure and strong S-SE winds, some coastal flooding is to be expected. Advisories are out for the SNE coast, and a coastal flood watch is out for parts of the downeast Maine coast.

Another update tomorrow morning. Have a great evening!

-Nathan

Brilliant Sun

Good morning!

Under sunny skies, expect temperatures to range between 45 and 55, coldest in the northern mountains and warmest in Connecticut.

Sorry for the very late and abbreviated post; I woke up a bit late and had no time for the blog. With a few minutes to spare between assignments in class, it’s better late than never though.

-Nathan

Dramatic Temperature Drop With Gusty Winds Today

Good morning!

Under mainly sunny skies and gusty winds, expect highs between the upper 30s in many northern mountains, through the 40s in much of the rest of Maine, NH, Vermont, most of western and central MA; expect low 50s in southeast NH/southwest ME/eastern, southeast and south central MA/RI/most of CT (except some Litchfield Hill towns may stay below 50).

Have a great Friday!

-Nathan

A Wide Temperature Range

Good morning!

Under varying partly sunny to full cloudy skies, expert highs between the mid 40s-low 50s in northern Maine and the mid 70s in central Connecticut; with mid 50s in northern NH, 63-70 in Vermont, 64-73 in southern/central NH, and 68-74 in MA/RI.

There will be a chance of showers as well.

Have a great Thursday!

-Nathan