Monday 2.8.21

Good morning!

With mostly sunny skies, expect a high around 28 today, with a northwest wind of 5-15 mph. Clouds will be on the increase tonight, with a low around 12, and a light wind. Tomorrow will have a high around 27, along with a light wind, and snow falling most of the day. Snow begins mid-morning and peaks in the early-mid afternoon, ending during the evening. Expect totals of 2-4″ throughout the area.

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Have a great day!
-Nathan

Sunday 2.7.21

Good morning!

With snow expected from midday today to mid-evening, expect a high around 33, with a northeast wind of 5-10 mph. Expect 3-6″ of fairly fluffy snow, ending during the Super Bowl. Skies then gradually clear tonight, with a low around 17, and a northwest wind of 5-10 mph. Monday will be sunny and 29, with a northwest wind of 5-10 mph.

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Have a great day!
-Nathan

Sat 2/6/21 AM Update on Sunday Snow Event

Good morning! Quick update on tomorrow’s snow system.

Timing
Snow begins around midday Sunday. Heavy snow is possible at times throughout the afternoon and evening. Snow begins to wind down during the early stages of the Super Bowl, completely ending by (or just after) the end of the game.

Amounts
Expect a widespread 2-5″ of snow for northern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire. If the current track of the system holds, this will be a fairly fluffy snow. Going further south, amounts increase to 5-8″ for much of the far southern tier of New England, but the weight of the snow also increases significantly the further south you go.

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Uncertainty
The northern edge of the higher snow totals is in a little bit of flux. If we can get additional heavy banding to form locally, we could see several inches more than the current forecast due to the more favorable, colder air in this area (though the weight of the snow would probably be heavier locally than currently forecast if that does end up happening). However, it looks like the best dynamics will be confined to our south. There’s also a chance we could underperform the snow forecast if we end up closer to the northern edge of the overall snow shield than expected. This isn’t a super difficult forecast, however.

Impacts
While a significant (6″+) snow is not forecasted locally, this will still cause travel impacts with poor road conditions Sunday afternoon and evening. An in-person Super Bowl party with people outside your household is a really bad idea given the pandemic, but if you are traveling to watch the big game somewhere, take it slow as pregame will have the worst of the conditions. Maybe get your snacks and food today or tomorrow morning if possible. By the time Brady and Mahomes begin to square off, the snow should be starting to wind down.

Have a great day!
-Nathan

Sunday 1/31/21 – PM Update

Good evening! Here’s a full update on the upcoming snowstorm.

Amounts
Expect a widespread 10-18″ in much of interior New England, including the Merrimack Valley. There will be a sharp drop-off in totals at the immediate coastline. Most towns near the coast see 5-12″, with 2-6″ at some immediate shoreline towns (and 0-3″ for Cape Cod and the Islands). Also, a little less snow (5-12″) can be expected near the Connecticut River due to subsidence and the effects of being east of the Berkshires.

There is uncertainty at the coast, as well as for Boston’s southern suburbs. Trends today favored more snow, though it’s possible that the forecast could be under-compensating and that Boston could get over a foot of snow. On the flip side, trends could go the other way and favor less snow at the coastline, depending on timing of mixing. Regardless, this is a fairly safe forecast in most locations, including Dracut.

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Timing
Once again, the timing shifts earlier. Snow begins midday tomorrow and will be heavy by the late afternoon/early evening. Heavy snow continues into the overnight hours, though gradually winding down. The accumulating snow is likely done by sunrise, though very light snow may continue occasionally during the day Tuesday.

Impact
The snow will be roughly average weight. It won’t be fluffy, but I also don’t expect anything unusually heavy and wet. There is a threat of downed trees and power outages, though, due to strong northeast winds of 10-20 mph, with peak gusts up to 40 mph. Blizzard conditions are possible at times with poor visibility. Driving will be extremely hazardous Monday evening into Tuesday morning, so stay off the roads if possible.

Uncertainty
This is a high-confidence forecast inland; the only major concern locally would be if the dry slot aloft moves in earlier than expected, which would undercut snow totals a little bit. Most of the uncertainty involves amounts closer to the coast. Trends today have favored more snow closer to the coast, but it will be a very delicate situation with the timing of mixing in those areas, so the forecast could bust in either direction at the immediate coastline, as mentioned earlier.

Have a great night!
-Nathan

Sunday 1/31/21 – AM Update

Good morning! Here’s a full update on the upcoming snowstorm.

Amounts
Expect a widespread 8-14″ in much of interior southern New England, including the Merrimack Valley. 4-8″ totals are likely a bit closer to the coast (especially inside of I-95 near Boston), as well as in parts of western New England further from the key moisture of this storm. Mixing will be an issue near the coast; 2-4″ can be expected at Cape Ann, as well as in much of southeastern Massachusetts (with 0-2″ for Cape Cod and the Islands). There is some uncertainty on snow totals near the coast.

Dracut

Timing
The system has sped up a bit since the last update. Snow begins midday Monday, and may impact the evening commute. However, the bulk of the accumulating snow will be Monday evening into Tuesday morning. The heavy snow ends by mid-morning Tuesday, but flurries and light snow may continue into Tuesday afternoon.

Impact
The snow will be roughly average weight. It won’t be fluffy, but I also don’t expect anything unusually heavy and wet. There is a threat of downed trees and power outages, though, due to strong northeast winds of 10-20 mph, with peak gusts up to 40 mph. Blizzard conditions are possible at times with poor visibility. Driving will be extremely hazardous Monday evening into Tuesday morning, so stay off the roads if possible.

Uncertainty
This is a high-confidence forecast inland; the only major concern locally would be if the dry slot aloft moves in earlier than expected, which would undercut snow totals a little bit. Most of the uncertainty involves amounts closer to the coast, as it’s not impossible that coastal locations (even south of Boston) could see up to a foot of snow with the initial band Monday evening and night before changing to rain.

I’ll have more info tonight if necessary. Have a great day!
-Nathan

Saturday 1/30/21

Good morning!

With sunny skies, expect a high around 19 today, with a northwest wind of 5-10 mph. Tonight will be clear, with a low around 2, and a northwest wind of 5-10 mph. Sunday will be partly cloudy and 28, with a light northwest wind.

We’re monitoring our first notable snowstorm in a while. It’s too early for precise details, but a widespread 6-12″ looks likely, with the potential for isolated higher amounts. Snow will likely start Monday afternoon or evening, but the bulk of the storm will be overnight Monday night and Tuesday morning, before winding down Tuesday late morning and afternoon. The main area of uncertainty is how far west the heavy snow shield extends. Most guidance indicates a hit for eastern MA and southeast NH, but it’s more up in the air to our west (though trends are looking favorable for snow to the west). More details will follow throughout the weekend.

Have a great day!
-Nathan

Friday 1/1/21 AM Update

Good morning and welcome to 2021!!!!

The year starts off with clear skies, along with a low temperature around 22 to take place closer to sunrise. Today’s high will be 40, with a few clouds developing toward the afternoon hours, but otherwise sunny skies will rule the day. Winds will be mainly light and calm. Clouds increase further after sunset; the Friday night low will be 30 as we see a mixed precipitation event in which every main precipitation type – snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain – may fall.

Expect a widespread coating to 2″ of snow and sleet and a trace to 0.05″ of ice/freezing rain. Precipitation begins around midnight, likely starting as snow (or as rain and quickly changing to snow) before becoming a difficult to predict mess overnight. Confidence is high in this being a mixed bag event, but the exact timing of changeovers and when a certain precipitation type will be falling is tougher to nail down. In any case, regular rain should begin to prevail for good not long after sunrise, and rain ends in the early afternoon as temperatures rise to around 38 degrees. Driving will be difficult in the overnight hours into tomorrow morning, so be careful.

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We get a brief rest Saturday night (low 24, mostly cloudy) before our next storm chance Sunday. The morning looks to most likely be dry, but precipitation likely develops in the late afternoon and evening. Most likely this will be a mix of rain and snow, with the possibility of several more inches of snow overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Given I am forecasting a high around 39 Sunday, precipitation likely starts as rain, probably flipping to snow at some point Sunday night, and changing back to rain Monday morning, but there is still a lot to figure out so stay tuned. Precipitation would be favored to end by early afternoon Monday, with a high around 37. Monday night will be mostly cloudy and 27; Tuesday will be mostly cloudy and 41.

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Have a great day! I’ll have more storm info if needed later.
-Nathan

 

Thursday 12/24/20 AM Update

Good morning!

With skies turning cloudy, expect a daytime high around 53, with a south wind of 5-10 mph, along with potential gusts up to 25 mph.

Expect rain to develop well after sunset and continue overnight; with heavy rain at times, flooding is possible in urban and low-lying areas, as well as smaller streams, especially considering that significant snowmelt is expected. For this reason, the National Weather Service has posted a Flood Watch for the area. Make sure your drains are clear of snow! Over 2 inches of rain may fall overnight tonight and into tomorrow. Rain will end during the evening tomorrow. Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the morning tomorrow, which would only enhance the wind damage threat (more below); a line of thunderstorms appears possible.

Additionally, high winds are also a significant hazard with this system. A High Wind Warning is in effect as southeast to south winds of 10-20 mph, with peak gusts over 60 mph, are expected tomorrow morning. Expect the most likely time for the strongest gusts to be just after sunrise into mid-morning, although strong gusts are expected throughout the night as well. The wind will calm down during the afternoon tomorrow. Power outages are likely for some folks; take care to make sure devices are charged and the like.

As for the snowpack, most or all of it will be gone by tomorrow. The definition of a “White Christmas”, as per the National Weather Service, as having 1″ or more of snow cover on the ground Christmas Day. It’ll be a race against the clock. It used to be said that it had to be 1″ at 7 am, but the National Weather Service does not reference this any longer. 7 am is a good marker of “Christmas morning” though. Whether we have 1″ left on the ground at 7 am is an open question, especially because fog is possible which could further eat away at the snowpack, but we should have more than enough to have a White Christmas if you use midnight as the definition. Either way, I’ll follow up on how much snow I have left tomorrow morning.

Temperatures will rise through the 50s overnight, with the Christmas daytime high being around 60 during the morning. It won’t be nearly as warm as 2014 (when a Christmas Eve/Day storm brought heavy rain and temperatures in the low 60s) and 2015 (when an abnormally warm pattern brought the Christmas Eve and Day that most of us probably want after putting up with this nonsense of a year – a high of 71 Christmas Eve and 64 Christmas Day with dry conditions throughout).

Temperatures fall back into the 50s during the afternoon tomorrow. Friday night will be mostly cloudy, with a low around 29, and a south wind at 5-10 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph possible.

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Saturday will be mostly sunny and much colder, with a daytime high around 35 (although for technical purposes, the official high will be somewhere in the 40s at midnight Saturday morning). Saturday night will be mostly clear and 21. Sunday will be mostly sunny and 38; Sunday night will be mostly clear and 24; and Monday will be mostly cloudy and 46.

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I will have an update later today if changes in the forecast warrant. Otherwise, Merry Christmas Eve to those who celebrate, and enjoy your day!
-Nathan

Friday 12/18/20

Good morning! After receiving 13.5″ of snow with yesterday’s storm – essentially a perfect verification of the 10-17″ forecast – cold conditions continue. With decreasing clouds, expect a high around 31 today, with a north wind around 5 mph. Tonight will be clear, with a low around 9, and a light northwest wind. Saturday will be mostly sunny and 31, with a calm wind. The next chance for snow is Sunday afternoon and evening with some snow showers in the area; however, accumulations are not currently anticipated. Highs will be in the upper 30s to around 40 through mid-week, cold enough to most likely preserve enough snow for a White Christmas.

The main surprise with this system is how far north the heaviest snow band ended up, and the fact that said band produced extreme snowfall rates of up to 5″ per hour (which is extraordinarily rare) in very cold air meant that some locations in south-central New Hampshire and Vermont got over 40″, with numerous locales getting 30″. Northern areas also had a secondary issue with the forecast where the Nashua to Manchester corridor eastward to Portsmouth got a little less than 10″ in most towns. I’m still planning on doing a “double analysis” of this storm and the December 5th forecast bust now that I’m through finals week.

Have a great day!
-Nathan