Tuesday 6.1.21

Good morning!

With partly cloudy skies, expect a high around 77 today, with a west wind around 5 mph. Tonight will be mostly clear and 51, with a calm wind.

Wednesday will be mostly sunny and 82, with a southwest wind around 5 mph. Wednesday night will have increasing clouds, a low around 56, and a southwest wind around 5 mph.

weather 2021-06-01.001Some showers are likely Thursday, especially in the afternoon and evening; expect a high around 73 with mostly cloudy skies. Showers are likely Thursday night, with a low around 61. Friday will be warmer with a high around 80, but expect mostly cloudy skies and a chance of some showers throughout the day. There are numerous outdoor high school graduations in the area set for Friday, so the weather Friday night will be very important. It’s too early to make a call in any direction – but the trends look good with a decreasing shower chance by sunset. If you are worried about that, I will tell you that my own high school graduation three years ago tonight – June 1, 2018 – came down to the wire in terms of rain chances and it ended up being a beautiful night. I’ll keep an eye on things throughout the week, though.

Friday night will have decreasing clouds, with a low around 61. Expect a high around 87 Saturday with mostly sunny skies; though it is possible we reach the 90 degree mark, I don’t have enough confidence in that outcome yet to put it on the 5-day forecast. Sunday and Monday do look extremely likely to be in the 90s though as the heat builds.

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On a historical note, today is the 10-year anniversary of the EF-3 Springfield/Monson tornado in western Massachusetts, which was one of the longest track tornadoes in state history, occurring on a very active severe weather day that produced  three other tornadoes in the state in the evening. While the impact of that day was fairly limited here in northeast Massachusetts, the sheer explosiveness of the day’s atmosphere was made obvious to us very early, as a supercell thunderstorm formed around 8:30 am producing large hail in Dracut. For those of you interested in reading more about the June 1, 2011 Springfield/Monson tornado, the National Weather Service has posted a great piece detailing what happened at https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/272ead74dfe348a4a0f10b3b619c9003.

Have a great day!

Thursday 5/27/21 Evening

Good evening!

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the forecast for Memorial Day weekend has gone from bad to much, much worse. I thought what I had to write yesterday was garbage. This is next-level garbage.

Expect a morning low of 49 and a daytime high of 64 for Friday, with a generally calm wind during the day, and mostly cloudy skies. There will be an increasing chance of rain in the afternoon as a low pressure system approaches the area. Rain is now expected throughout Friday night and most of Saturday morning, before gradually giving way to a chance of showers Saturday afternoon. Expect a night low of 43 Friday night and a daytime high of just 51 on Saturday, with cloudy skies and a northeast wind of 5-15 mph.

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Saturday night and Sunday will be a bit better, but not much: a low of 43 and a high around 53, with mostly cloudy skies throughout, along with a chance of showers developing again Sunday evening and a continued northeast wind. Rain is possible Sunday night, with a low around 46 and mostly cloudy skies.

Some showers may remain Monday morning, but the afternoon may actually be decent for Memorial Day proper, with a high around 68 projected along with mostly cloudy skies. There is a wider range in temperature possibilities for Monday: a third straight day in the 50s is not fully out of the question, but we also could break into the 70s. At this time, upper 60s to near 70 is the most probable scenario for Monday. Conditions finally stabilize by Monday night and Tuesday, with decreasing clouds and a low of 49 Monday night giving way to mostly sunny skies for Tuesday, with a high around 78. It’s almost like this pattern is planned to provide as crappy a long weekend as possible. Guess we’ll all have to roll with the punches. Again, if any of this changes significantly, I’ll update the forecast.

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Have a great night!

Wednesday 5/26/21

Good morning!!

With mostly sunny skies, expect a high around 92 today, with a southwest wind of 5-15 mph. While strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to the north and west during the afternoon and evening hours, precipitation is not expected in our area before 8 pm.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy; showers and thunderstorms are likely after 8 pm, with severe storms possible in the first – and primary – line of storms, which will move through between 8 pm and midnight. An additional batch of showers and sub-severe storms is likely before 3 am, by which all precipitation should end. Winds will be southwest at 5-15 mph (with much higher gusts possible in thunderstorms), flipping to the west at 5-10 mph late.

Thursday will be mostly sunny and 80, with a northwest wind at 5-15 mph. Thursday night will be mostly clear and 46, with a north wind of 5-10 mph.

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Friday will kick off what is looking to be a crappy Memorial Day weekend. Friday’s high will be around 64, with increasing clouds and a chance of afternoon showers. A system will pass nearby, delivering useful rain to areas south of the Mass Pike, but we will be on the northern cutoff of the system; so we could end up with very little rain Friday afternoon and night, or we could end up with a beneficial rainfall. Regardless, expect lots of clouds and cool conditions for Friday. The Friday night low will be 44, with a continued chance of showers.

Any showers should end by early Saturday morning, giving way to mostly cloudy skies, with a high around 61. Saturday night will be partly cloudy and 45, and Sunday will be partly cloudy and 63. However, it is possible, depending on the extent of clouds, that we may not even reach 60 degrees either weekend day, as an northeasterly wind off the Gulf of Maine dominates the long weekend. Conditions may improve Monday, as it’s possible we get back into the 70s with more sun, but a lot of the newer guidance is instead projecting another crappy day in the upper 50s to low 60s. In any case, it doesn’t look like a great weekend, with the main saving grace being it doesn’t look particularly rainy – just cool and cloudy. And since this is New England, Tuesday looks nice, because that’s the first day after the long weekend. I’ll be sure to update this forecast, as conditions may shift regarding precipitation this weekend.

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Have a great day!

Friday Evening 5.21.21

Good evening!

Expect a low around 64 tonight, with mostly cloudy skies. Saturday will be partly sunny, with a high around 90, with a slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Saturday night will have decreasing clouds, with a low around 63. Sunday will be mostly sunny and 91, with a slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm again. Expect winds generally westerly around 5 mph throughout the period (ranging from more southwesterly tomorrow to more of a west-northwest direction by Sunday).

Have a good night!

Sunday 3.28.21

Good afternoon!

With rain this afternoon and evening, expect a daytime high around 47, with a southeast wind of 5-10 mph, along with gusts up to 30 mph. A few scattered rumbles of thunder are also possible as temperatures rise into the mid-50s after sunset, before temperatures start to fall around midnight as the last of the rain ends. Total rainfall of around an inch is possible. The low will be around 37, with decreasing clouds once the rain ends, and a southeast wind of 10-15 mph, gusting up to 30 mph, and turning to the west at 10-20 mph around midnight, with gusts up to 40 mph possible.

The real bulk of the wind will be tomorrow, though – expect a high around 52, with mostly sunny skies, and a west-northwest wind of 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 50 mph possible. The wind gradually begins to calm down by Monday night. Tuesday will be a nice day, with highs in the low 60s with lots of sunshine.

Have a great day!

Tuesday 3.23.21

Good afternoon!

Expect continued mainly sunny skies today, with a high around 67, and a light wind. Tonight will have increasing clouds, with a low around 35, with a light wind. Wednesday will be mostly cloudy and 57, with a light southeast wind. Rain showers are possible after sunset tomorrow evening into the overnight hours; the low will be around 46, with a calm wind. Thursday will be partly sunny and 75, with a southwest wind around 5 mph.

Have a good day!