Saturday 12/5/20 AM Update

Good morning!

Rain has overspread the region early this morning as forecast. The forecast has become more favorable for higher snowfall amounts; the details are below.

Amounts: Expect a swath of 10-15″ for south central New Hampshire into central and interior northeastern Massachusetts, as the heaviest snow bands should set up around here. I have the Lowell/Dracut area within this range as the interior portions of the Merrimack Valley (including the Lowell to Manchester corridor) should be subject to some of those very heavy snowfall rates. The jackpot will likely be just north of Worcester, though. This 10-15″ range extends off the map into a large area of central New Hampshire and Maine.

Elsewhere, a large swath of 5-10″ surrounds the 10-15″ zone, though some spots in the 5-10″ zone may overperform. This zone includes most of coastal northeastern Massachusetts, Boston and its immediate northern/western suburbs, northeast Connecticut, northwest Rhode Island, and continues northward into much of New Hampshire and Maine. There is some uncertainty at the immediate coastline on amounts, though. I have 2-5″ forecasted for the southern suburbs of Boston, the Providence area, the Connecticut River valley, and the very immediate shoreline from Cape Ann to Boston. Amounts decrease further west and south, where rain will be more prevalent and flooding may even be an issue.

Timing: Rain changes to snow first in the Worcester Hills, later this morning. Other interior areas, including the Lowell/Dracut area, change around midday to early afternoon, with the coast changing to snow during the late afternoon to early evening hours, as temperatures cool to around freezing. The heaviest snow locally falls during the late afternoon to mid evening hours, during which 1-3″ of snow per hour is possible. Snow winds down this evening and ends completely around midnight.

Impacts: Travel will be extremely dangerous with extremely heavy snow this afternoon. When combined with strong wind gusts exceeding 35 mph, periods of blizzard conditions are possible. Additionally, this will primarily be a heavy wet snowfall; the weight of the snow may cause downed tree limbs and wires. Some power outages are likely with the potential for widespread power outages and significant property damage. The snowstorm of March 7-8, 2018 also featured a band of intense heavy wet snow and the result of that storm was huge percentages of people with no power (94 percent of Dracut out), as well as countless trees, wires, and tree limbs down. I’m not saying we’ll see a similar outcome today, but be prepared for the possibility that we do.

Have a great day!
-Nathan

Friday 12/4/20 AM Update

Good morning!

We have a storm on our hands, so let’s quickly run down the next day and a half or so first. With mostly cloudy skies, expect a high around 53 today, with a southwest wind of 5-10 mph. Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a low around 39, a light southwest wind, and a chance of rain late. Expect heavy rain tomorrow morning, with the high temperature of 43 occurring around mid-morning.

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Temperatures then fall to around the freezing mark by midday as heavy rain flips over to heavy snow. For a time during the afternoon and evening, snow rates well over 1″ per hour are possible. This will make for poor driving conditions, and whiteout conditions are possible at times with a northwest wind of 5-15 mph gusting up to 35 mph. Snow wraps up by around midnight or so Saturday night. Power outages will also be possible due to the weight of the snow. My going forecast calls for 5-10″ of snow for much of northeast Massachusetts and southeast New HampshireMore details regarding uncertainty follow.

Dracut

There is increasing confidence in significant snowfall amounts as guidance is settling in on a classic “benchmark” track that is favorable for snowfall in interior eastern New England. However there is still some uncertainty here. Given the likelihood of an especially heavy snow band setting up, it’s possible we could over-perform even the 5-10″ forecast; when all is done, some places may see over a foot of snow, but confidence is not high enough to add a 10″+ tier. Depending on trends, such an update may be necessary this evening (such an update won’t happen until after 9 pm, because of work).

The other end of the uncertainty stick is with amounts at both the immediate coastline as well as in western New England. The obvious caveats always apply at the coast regarding warmer temperatures, but temperatures will be marginal everywhere and this storm is reliant on very heavy snow rates, so it’s possible that heavy snow could occur right up to the coast – likely not to the same degree as inland, but the northeast MA coast will likely approach the 6-inch snow mark.

As for western New England, the system’s eastward trend is leaving less overall precipitation for that region, and some guidance is now indicating a near-shutout out that way. There is still some guidance on board with heavy snow out that way, so while the odds are decreasing, there is still tons of uncertainty in western New England that should resolve soon.

While this now seems very unlikely, it’s also not entirely impossible that this ends up being an underperforming system locally as well. Overall, this forecast is much less stable than we typically have so close to the onset of a storm. 

The system’s departure gives way to temperatures falling to around 26 Saturday night, with a northwest wind of 10-20 mph, gusting up to 35 mph, and mostly cloudy skies. Skies turn mostly sunny Sunday, with a high around 35. Sunday night will be mostly clear and 21. Monday will be mostly sunny and 35; Monday night will be mostly clear and 17; Tuesday will be 35 and mostly sunny.

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Have a great day!
-Nathan

Wednesday 12/2/20

Good morning!

With partly cloudy skies, expect a high around 42 today, with a chance of an afternoon shower and a southwest wind of 5-15 mph. Tonight will be mostly clear and 26, with a west-southwest wind of 5-10 mph. Thursday will be mostly sunny and 48, with a southwest wind of 5-10 mph. Thursday night will have increasing clouds, with a low around 32, and a southwest wind of 5-10 mph.

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Friday will be mostly cloudy and 50; Friday night will be cloudy and 37, with a chance of showers. Saturday will be cloudy and 45, with rain likely, especially toward the later stages of the day. Saturday night will be cloudy and 32, with rain likely, perhaps changing to a mix late. Sunday will be mostly cloudy and 38, with a chance of rain and potentially mixed precipitation in the morning.

weather 2020-12-02.002

Have a great day!
-Nathan

Monday 11/30/20

Good morning!

With rain beginning in the early to mid afternoon, expect a high around 58 today, with an east to southeast wind of 5-10 mph, increasing to 10-20 mph, along with potential gusts to 45 mph. Wind increases to 15-25 mph out of the south, with potential gusts up to 55 mph, tonight; expect a low around 53 along with continuing heavy rain. Power outages are possible through tomorrow morning, so make sure you charge all of your devices!

Rain of around an inch and a half is likely with the potential for up to two inches of rain. Showers remain possible into tomorrow morning, giving way to mostly cloudy skies along with a high around 57 in the morning, followed by temperatures falling in the afternoon. Wind will be south at 5-15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph possible.

Have a great day!
-Nathan

Monday 11/23/20

Good morning!

With rain today, expect a high around 53, with a south wind turning northwest at 5-15 mph, and potential gusts up to 35 mph. Tonight will have clearing skies, with a low around 29, a northwest wind of 5-15 mph, and potential gusts up to 35 mph. Tuesday will be mostly sunny and 40, with a northwest wind of 5-15 mph, and potential gusts up to 25 mph. Tuesday night will be partly cloudy and 18, with a light northwest wind.

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Wednesday will be cloudy and 42. Wednesday night will be cloudy and 38, with a chance of rain late. Thanksgiving Thursday will be cloudy and 50, with rain likely – the timing on this still needs to be worked out. Thursday night will be 37, with a chance of rain, followed by mostly cloudy skies. Friday will be mostly cloudy and 54.weather 2020-11-23.002

Have a great day!
-Nathan

Thursday 11/12/20 Evening

Good evening!

With cloudy skies, expect a low around 37, with a light northeast wind. Friday will have rain at times, with a high around 45, and a northeast wind around 5 mph. Friday night will have rain early, followed by decreasing clouds, with a low around 33, and a northeast wind around 5 mph, flipping to the northwest. Saturday will be mostly sunny and 49; Saturday night will be 25 and mostly clear.

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Going forward, Sunday will have increasing clouds, with a high around 54 and a chance of afternoon showers. Showers are possible Sunday night as well, with a low around 40 and mostly cloudy skies. Monday will have a high around 52, with skies turning mostly sunny. Monday night will be mostly clear and 32; Tuesday will be mostly sunny and 45.

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Have a great night!
-Nathan

Monday 11/9/20

Good morning!

With sunny skies, expect a high around 77 today, with a calm wind. Tonight will be clear and 40, with a calm wind. Tuesday will be sunny and 79, with a southwest wind around 5 mph. Tuesday night will feature increasing clouds, with a low around 55, and a southwest wind around 5 mph.

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Wednesday will be partly sunny to mostly cloudy with a high around 73, along with a chance of afternoon showers. Showers are likely overnight Wednesday and early Thursday, with a low around 61. Showers are likely through the morning and potentially into the early afternoon Thursday, with a high around 65, and skies otherwise being mostly cloudy. Thursday night will be partly cloudy and 39, and Friday will be mostly sunny and 53.

Friday will mark our first seasonable daytime high in over a week by that point (the average high for November 9 is 53 degrees, and for this Friday, November 13, the average high is 52). Wednesday should mark our 7th straight day at or above 70 degrees, and Thursday will also have a well above normal high temperature. Seasonable temperatures are favored to continue into the weekend and next week, with neither significantly warm nor significantly cool conditions expected at this time.

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Have a great day!
-Nathan

Saturday 11/7/20

Good morning!

With sunny skies, expect a high around 78 today, with a west wind around 5 mph. Tonight will be mostly clear and 46, with a light west wind. Sunday will be sunny and 72, with a light northwest wind. Sunday night will be mostly clear and 42, with a calm wind.

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The warm weather will continue for several more days, throughout the forecast period. As high temperatures have consistently overshot all guidance, I continue to adjust the forecast temperatures to account for this (much like what I did yesterday except now with more data to back me up; this explains my 78 degree forecast for today and my 72 degree forecast for tomorrow). Monday will be sunny and 75, Monday night will be mostly clear and 46, Tuesday will be sunny and 75, Tuesday night will have increasing clouds and a low of 56, and Wednesday will have a chance of showers, mostly cloudy skies, and a high around 71.

weather 2020-11-07.002

Have a great day!
-Nathan

Friday 11/6/20

Good morning!

With decreasing clouds giving way to mostly sunny skies, expect a morning low of 51 and a high around 71, with a southwest wind around 5 mph. Tonight will be mostly clear and 47, with a west wind around 5 mph. Saturday will be sunny and 74, with a west wind around 5 mph. Saturday night will be mostly clear and 43, with a light west wind.

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Partly cloudy to mostly clear nights in the middle 40s, and sunny to mostly sunny days with highs in the low to potentially middle 70s, are the theme through Tuesday. (I have adjusted forecasts upward given the way Thursday played out, as my original forecast of 68 for Thursday was more closely matched to guidance and still was too low. The pattern is similar through Tuesday so I have decided to place all 5 days in the 70s.) Sunday will be sunny and 70; Sunday night will be partly cloudy and 43; Monday will be mostly sunny and 72; Monday night will be partly cloudy and 47; and Tuesday will be mostly sunny and 73.weather 2020-11-06.002

Enjoy the weekend, but be sure to mask up and practice physical distancing given the ongoing COVID spike. It’ll be a great weekend for outdoor activities!
-Nathan

Thursday 11/5/20

Good morning!

Today is just the first day out of what will likely be a 7 day stretch of very warm weather With sunny skies, expect a high around 68, with a southwest wind of 5-10 mph, and potential gusts up to 25 mph. Tonight will be partly cloudy and 48, with a southwest wind around 5 mph. Friday will be mostly sunny and 70, with a southwest wind of 5-10 mph. Friday night will be mostly clear and 47, with a west wind of 5-10 mph.

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It’s not uncommon to get a day or two approaching 70 degrees in November. Not easy to do, but always possible. What is uncommon, though, is seven straight days around the 70 degree mark, and that is what we will be getting. Saturday will be sunny and 71; Saturday night will be mostly clear and 43; Sunday will be mostly sunny and 69; Sunday night will be partly cloudy and 44; Monday will be mostly sunny and 70. A high somewhere near 70 degrees is also likely Tuesday, and at an early glance next Wednesday, we will likely be in the upper 60s as we have our next chance of showers. This stretch of weather is remarkable: every day for the next seven days, we will have a shot at 70 degrees, it’s November, and the next six days should be dry with lots of sunshine. Cooler but still seasonably warm temperatures are favored beyond that.
weather 2020-11-05.002

Have a great day!
-Nathan