Friday 7/17/20

Good morning from a Starbucks parking lot in Epping, New Hampshire!

With mainly cloudy skies today with intermittent showers and thunderstorms likely at times (but not a washout by any means), expect a high around 74, with a south wind of 5-10 mph. Humidity will also increase throughout the day. Tonight will have decreasing clouds, with a low around 65, and a light southwest wind.

Tomorrow will be sunny and hot, with a high around 93, and a light southwest wind. Tomorrow night will be mostly clear and 68, with a calm wind.

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Have a great day!
-Nathan

Thursday 7/16/20

Good morning!

Today will be partly sunny and 77 with a southeast wind around 5 mph. Tonight will be mostly cloudy and 60, with a southeast wind around 5 mph.

Friday will be mostly cloudy and 76, with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, and a south wind around 5-10 mph, accompanied by a slight uptick in humidity. Heavy rain is possible at times which could lead to minor flooding. Friday night will have a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, followed by clearing skies overnight; expect a low around 65 with a light south wind and increasingly humid conditions.

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A heat wave (at least 3 straight days with a high at or above 90) is likely beginning Saturday and lasting through at least Tuesday, and possibly a bit longer. Heat index values nearing 100 are possible at times, especially Sunday, when highs will most likely be in the mid to potentially upper 90s, and heat index values will likely reach over 100. Humidity will also spike starting Friday.

Have a great day!
-Nathan

Tuesday 7/14/20

Good morning!

With increasing clouds, and some showers or thunderstorms likely at times from late morning through mid-evening, expect a high around 80 today, with a wind turning out of the northeast at around 5 mph. While thunderstorms are obviously not guaranteed, most spots in central/eastern MA and southern NH will likely see something today.

The primary threat today is very heavy rain in thunderstorms, which may cause flash flooding. Storms have the potential to be strong to severe, with the primary threat for severe weather being strong to damaging wind gusts. Frequent lightning is also a threat as usual. Small hail is possible in some storms, though large hail is unlikely. The storm threat should wrap up toward the later evening hours with the bulk of the activity during the afternoon hours.

Have a great day!
-Nathan

Monday 7/13/20

Good morning!

With mostly cloudy skies, expect a high around 85 today, with a southwest wind at 5-10 mph. Showers and thunderstorms are likely at times this afternoon and this evening; storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds the primary severe weather hazard. Flash flooding is also possible as these storms will contain very heavy rain, and as usual, frequent lightning is a threat. The threat for severe weather should wrap up by 10 pm.

As seems to have been the case with most severe weather days this year so far, I am working this evening, so my ability to send updates will be limited at best. Have a great day!
-Nathan

Saturday 7/11/20

Good morning!

In the wake of showers overnight associated with what was Tropical Storm Fay, the westward trend of the system’s center has left us with increasing sunshine this morning. With mostly sunny skies, expect a high around 92, with a south wind of 5-15 mph, and gusts up to 30 mph possible as the day goes on. Clouds will be on the increase this evening, and the low will be 71 tonight, with mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm; the wind will be out of the south at 5-10 mph.

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and 92, with a wind shifting to the west at 5-15 mph; gusts up to 30 mph are possible.

Have a great day!
-Nathan

7/10/20 Evening Update – TS Fay Update #3

Good evening!

This is a very quick update post regarding Tropical Storm Fay. Since landfall in New Jersey this afternoon, Fay has been weakening; the bulk of the rainfall is staying in New York state with this system as the highest rainfall totals continue to shift further west. Showers  remain likely overnight with isolated minor flooding possible in any heavy showers or storms but widespread heavy rain now appears unlikely.

Have a good night!
-Nathan

Friday 7/10/20 AM – Tropical Storm Fay Update #2

Good morning!

Tropical Storm Fay is running almost parallel to the New Jersey shore this morning and will make landfall somewhere along the New Jersey shore or in the New York metro area this afternoon or evening. As a result of Fay running a bit to the west compared to the forecast from last night, the forecast has changed a little bit. Expect a high around 87 today, with partly sunny skies this morning giving way to mostly cloudy conditions toward this evening.

Hazards: The main hazard is minor flooding, with flash flooding also possible, due to heavy rainfall. Gusty winds are expected at times, although it won’t be anything out of the ordinary compared to a typical breezy day. An isolated severe thunderstorm could produce a stronger wind gust or an isolated tornado tonight or tomorrow, but the main risk zone for this is southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut tonight, shifting to Connecticut, western Massachusetts, and southern Vermont tomorrow; central and northeast Massachusetts and points further north have the least risk of severe weather but a stray strong storm can’t be completely ruled out locally.

Timing: A few showers and storms are possible this afternoon and evening. The heaviest rain will fall overnight tonight before ending tomorrow morning. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the day tomorrow, although the chance for precipitation drops significantly in the afternoon. We could even pull out some breaks of sunshine later in the day tomorrow.

Impacts: The main impact locally will be from potential minor flooding in urban and poor-drainage areas. However, because of the west shift in the track I mentioned, the Flash Flood Watch previously in effect from noon today to noon tomorrow has been cancelled by the National Weather Service in Norton, as the flood threat has gone down for central and eastern Massachusetts. (The watch continues in western Massachusetts and Connecticut). In our neck of the woods, I don’t expect wind damage to be a problem. As you travel further south and west, gusty to strong winds will pose more of a threat, but around here, the most notable impact is that it may get a bit on the gusty side, but nothing beyond the scope of a typical breezy day we see often during the spring and fall. Again, a strong storm can’t be completely ruled out, but this is very unlikely in our area.

Specifics: Expect between 0.5″ and 1.5″ of rain locally (and in much of eastern and central New England). Those in western New England will see roughly 1.5″ to 3″ of rain. Winds will be generally south and east, at 5-15 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. Again, a very isolated stray storm could produce a stronger wind gust, but this is an extremely low threat in our area

Discussion: The center of Fay will pass over far western New England tonight and tomorrow, after making landfall somewhere along the Jersey shore or in the New York metro area. Tropical systems tend to have their heaviest rainfall on the west side of the system; Fay’s heaviest rain will be around the center extending a bit to the west. Being on the east side of the low, we will be subject to less rain locally.

See below, the 8 AM track forecast from the National Hurricane Center for Fay’s track.

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Have a great day!
-Nathan

7/9/20 Evening – Tropical Storm Fay Update #1

Good evening!

Tropical Storm Fay has formed off the North Carolina coast this evening, and will impact our area tomorrow and Saturday. Below I will attempt to quickly summarize Fay’s impacts followed by a brief discussion of the track of the system and potential factors that could change the forecast. (Knowing myself, I’ll ramble on too long. Feel free to criticize in the comments!)

Hazards: The main hazard is minor flooding, with flash flooding also possible, due to heavy rainfall. Wind is much less of a concern with Fay for northeast Massachusetts. Gusty winds can’t be ruled out, but this impact is very minor. There is a very slight chance of an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm overnight Friday night and Saturday morning, but this is mainly a potential problem to our south and west – and even there this potential problem will likely be very limited in scope or even non-existent.

Timing: Showers and thunderstorms begin in the afternoon tomorrow. The heaviest rain is likely to fall overnight Friday night as the center of Fay passes through New England. Rain gradually ends late Saturday morning with a few residual showers possible in the afternoon and evening.

Impacts: The main impact locally will be from potential flooding in urban and poor-drainage areas. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from noon tomorrow to noon Saturday. In our neck of the woods, I don’t expect wind damage to be a problem. As you travel further south and west, gusty to strong winds will pose more of a threat, but around here, the most notable impact is that it may get a little breezy – but I’m not expecting anything out of the ordinary. Again, a strong storm can’t be completely ruled out, but this is very unlikely in our area. If the severe thunderstorm threat increases even a little for Friday night and Saturday I’ll make note of it in a post tomorrow.

Specifics: 1 to 2 inches of rain is likely for our area, and for much of eastern and central New England. A few spots may see over 2 inches of rain, mainly in western New England. Winds will be 5-15 mph locally; generally speaking, expect peak gusts in the 15-30 mph range; I’m leaning toward the lower numbers on the wind forecast. A rogue stronger wind gust isn’t completely out of the question as noted, with the severe thunderstorm wild card. Again, the wind impact will be similar, if perhaps even less notable, than many clear, sunny days we see in this region.

Discussion: The center of Fay will pass over western New England, after making landfall in the New York metro area. Tropical storms tend to have their heaviest rainfall on the west side of the center and the strongest wind gusts on the east side of the center. This is where the isolated tornado and wind damage threat comes in with any stronger storms; however, Fay is a fairly weak and unimpressive system, so that hazard is very limited in nature even near the south coast, and Fay should weaken into a tropical depression once it starts crossing over Connecticut, which is why the best chance for a severe storm is south of the Mass Pike. It’s not like a hurricane or a stronger tropical storm where the wind impacts extend out generally much further by comparison. As for the rain, Fay’s rain will peak right near the center, which is why western New England and eastern New York are favored for the heaviest rain. In the event of a track shift to the east, all the above impacts would shift slightly to the east, but I wouldn’t be expecting any major changes.

See below, the 11 PM forecast from the National Hurricane Center for Fay’s track.

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I’ll have more info tomorrow; have a great night!
-Nathan

Thursday 7/9/20 – Potential Tropical System Fri/Sat

Good morning!

With mostly sunny skies, and a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon but dry conditions most likely prevailing, expect a high around 92, with a light wind. Combined with dew points in the low to mid 70s, the heat today will lead to heat index values of 95 to 100 at times. Try to limit your activity outdoors if possible and stay cool. Tonight will be partly cloudy and 71, with a calm wind.

Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy, with a high around 84. A few showers and storms are possible during the daytime hours, with a wind turning southeast at 5-10 mph toward the evening. Isolated areas of heavy rainfall are possible Friday ahead of the main rainfall from the low pressure off the Carolinas that will likely turn into a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Fay at some point today or tomorrow. The exact location of the heaviest rainfall is subject to some change, although the odds favor somewhere on the order of 1 to 2 inches of rain locally and a higher potential for over 2 inches of rain to our west. A significant impact from wind is unlikely, although Friday night and Saturday, a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado possible somewhere in southern New England. Saturday is likely a washout, although it’s not impossible that things could dry out toward the late evening if the system moves quickly enough. I’ll have more information on the system tonight or tomorrow.

Have a great day!
-Nathan

Wednesday 7/8/20 – Afternoon Severe Weather Update

Good afternoon! Just a quick update post regarding the potential for severe weather this afternoon and evening as I’m working for a large part of those hours and thus my ability to send updates in the event of any severe weather approaching the area will be limited at best.

A stray shower or thunderstorm can’t be ruled out before 3 pm, after which the chance for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase. The bulk of the severe weather activity will likely remain to our north, but the Dracut area could potentially see a strong or severe thunderstorm depending on how things play out. The timeline for strong to severe storms region-wide is roughly 3 to 10 pm. Strong to damaging winds are the main severe weather hazard, with a few instances of large hail not out of the question. Very heavy rain is possible in any storm, which could lead to flash flooding. Frequent lightning is also possible. Again, I’ll do my best to post updates when possible, but I can’t guarantee anything so keep an eye to the sky, and have a way to get watches and warnings if any are issued.

Despite very hot temperatures (high 92) and high humidity (dew points around 70), tomorrow will likely stay dry with only a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. A period of very heavy rain is likely at some point Friday into Saturday associated with a low pressure system that could develop into a tropical storm. Friday evening into Saturday will most likely be a washout, although some model guidance is indicating that there is at least some chance the second half of Saturday could dry out a bit and make Friday daytime the center of the heavy rain. Still a few days to go to see how things time out.

Have a great day!
-Nathan