1/1/20 AM Update

Good morning and happy 2020!!!! I’m continuing a fairly new tradition of making a full forecast right after midnight (it’s just before 1:15 AM as I type this), and for the new year and decade, I’m going to try and get back on track with how consistently I post. I’ve let that slip a lot in the last two years and that doesn’t reflect well. New year, new decade, new start!

With skies turning sunny today, expect a morning low of 26 and a daytime high of 39, with a west wind of 5-15 mph. Those winds continue into the overnight hours (though mainly on the lower end), with a low around 24 and mostly clear skies.

Thursday will be 45 and mostly sunny, with a west wind of around 5 mph. Expect increasing clouds Thursday night, with a low around 30 and a calm wind.

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Rain is likely at times throughout Friday and Saturday (especially Friday and Friday night), with a high of 45 Friday, low of 39 Friday night, and a high of 49 Saturday. Saturday night will have a low of 32, with a chance for some of the last rain showers to end as a mix with snow overnight after the Pats game is over. Sunday will have a high around 37, with decreasing clouds.

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Happy New Year!!
-Nathan

12/31/19: End of The 2010s Decade

Good morning!

With rain in the morning, then mostly cloudy conditions this afternoon, expect a high around 39, with a northeast wind of 5-15 mph, shifting to the west later today. As we cross from the 2010s into the 2020s overnight, expect a low around 27, with mostly cloudy skies and a west wind of 5-10 mph. For those who plan to be at any outdoor celebrations, expect temperatures near the 32-degree freezing mark at midnight, or perhaps a little cooler.

Have a great day and Happy New Year early!
-Nathan

12/25/19

Good morning and Merry Christmas!

With partly sunny skies, expect a high around 39 today, with a light south wind. Tonight will be partly cloudy and 24, with a calm wind.

For the biggest annual return day in retail (probably), it will be mostly sunny and 39, with a light northeast wind; tomorrow night will be 27, with increasing clouds and a calm wind.

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Friday morning has a chance of snow or ice in the morning, then a chance of rain, with a high around 46. Travel could be dangerous Friday morning, but the impact could be limited with the number of people not working on Friday. Friday night will be 35 with decreasing clouds.

Saturday will be the pick of the next week, with a high around 46 with mostly sunny skies. Saturday night will be 26 with increasing clouds, and Sunday will be 48 with increasing clouds and a chance of showers.

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Have a great day!
-Nathan

12/5/19 – Today’s Forecast and Storm Recap

Good morning! This is a two part post: the forecast for today and tomorrow, and a summary of the winter storm from earlier this week.

Today will be mostly sunny and 40, with a west wind of 5-10 mph. Tonight will be mostly clear and 19, with a northwest wind of 5-10 mph.

Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy and 32, with a chance of snow showers, and a light west wind. A coating to an inch of snow is possible if we get any snowfall out of this.

Speaking of snow, we are coming off the heels of what would be a major storm for any time of the year, but especially early December. This unusual two-part system recorded a total of 20.2″ snowfall in Dracut, with 12.3″ falling in the first part of the system (before midday Monday, but primarily Sunday evening) and 7.9″ in the second part of the system (after midday Monday, primarily Tuesday morning). Amounts ranged from 20-30″ in most of northern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire, as well as much of southern Vermont; total snow was 12-20″ in southeast, central, and far southwest New Hampshire, parts of interior northeast Massachusetts (east of Methuen, as well as south of I-495), and south-central and southwest Massachusetts. The Greenfield, Mass. area saw a local minimum snowfall, with an area of amounts below 20″ surrounded largely by higher amounts. Most of the immediate Massachusetts coastline saw 6-12″, with 3-6″ and lower for coastal southeast Massachusetts.

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All this snow fell despite sleet cutting in at points during the storm. Sleet (and rain) resulted in a significant drop in snow amounts south of the Mass Pike and at the coastline. Further inland, brief sleet mixing in interior locales resulted in a minor decrease in amounts compared to the potential, but still well above my forecast from Saturday morning:
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The overall forecast from midday Monday (below), which was adjusted to include what had already fallen and what was forecast to occur, was closer, but still fell short in many spots because many locations – especially in western and central spots – vastly over-performed on the back-end of the system. 7-14″ was a hair too high in a handful of coastal locations, but woefully low almost everywhere else – particularly locations that did not see as much snow during the first part of the system. Of course, southwestern Massachusetts isn’t my main area of focus, but Springfield ended up with 18″ of snow, including 11″ in the second half of the system. The second half forecast is what killed the whole forecast; the forecast for the whole system from Saturday (above) is not an unreasonable representation of what actually fell during the first half in most locations.

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This system was fairly unusual in its two-part nature; given precipitation stopped in most locations for a while, it could have been treated as two separate systems for forecasting purposes. I attempted to partially fulfill that by creating two maps, but as you can tell by the remaining snow map (which is for anything after noontime Monday), things went sideways. The eastern 4-10″ zone did reasonably, but the interior forecast was way too low in general.

With that in mind, these two-part systems don’t occur quite like this one too often; on to the next one!

Have a great day!
-Nathan

12/2/19 – Afternoon Update

Good afternoon! Quick forecast update.

After getting 12″ of snow last night and early this morning, we are in a bit of a lull at this time. Snow will be ramping up this evening and overnight before ending late in the morning tomorrow.

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I am expecting 4-10″ of further snowfall before the end of the storm; the reason for the wide range is because we will be near some extremely heavy snow bands. If we can get into the very heavy snow, there is even a chance we could exceed 10″ overnight; if not, we still end up with somewhere in the vicinity of 6″ more. When the system is all done, we will have somewhere in the 14-22″ range for total snowfall between the two parts of the system (although I’d scale it to at least 16″ in tandem with the first part of the forecast).

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Additional school delays and cancellations are possible tomorrow. I might update this later depending on how the mesoscale patterns play out as the second phase of the storm plays out.

-Nathan

11/30/19 AM Update on 12/1 to 12/3 Storm

Good morning!

While I’m writing this up, may as well offer up a forecast for today: sunny, high 33, northwest wind 5-10 mph, with gusts of 20-30 mph at times. Now onto the storm.

Snow begins during the afternoon Sunday, in the 12 to 4 pm time frame, before ramping up after sunset. The heaviest snow will be overnight Sunday night into Monday morning; this will yield significant impacts to the Monday morning commute, likely leading to all area schools being closed for Monday. Snow continues throughout the day Monday, and doesn’t wrap up until around sunrise Tuesday morning, therefore creating an impact to the evening commute time Monday, and potentially even the Tuesday morning commute, although the Tuesday commute time will have minor impacts compared to the two Monday commute times.

There is a slight chance that snow could briefly mix with sleet Monday morning, but I think this system is going to remain mostly or all snow given the vertical temperature profiles with this system. Mixing will be a much more significant problem to the south, as well as at the immediate coastline. Even if we do see some sleet, I don’t think it will be enough to dramatically lower our snowfall total, barring a dramatic change in the forecast.

As for amounts, I think we will see around a foot of snow; I thus have Dracut and the area in the 10-15″ range, along with much of interior northern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire. The bullseye of this storm is in east-central New York, southern Vermont, and northwest Massachusetts with 15-20″ of snow expected, and perhaps up to 2 feet in some spots.

Going back down the scale, expect 5-10″ near and south of the Mass Pike and inside of I-95/Rt. 128, as mixing with sleet will be a more significant issue in these areas. The 5-10″ zone includes Boston and its northern suburbs, the North Shore (except Cape Ann), the Newburyport area, easternmost areas of southern New Hampshire, the Springfield area, the southern suburbs of Worcester, most of northern Connecticut, and far northwest Rhode Island.

From there, amounts decrease sharply in Rhode Island, southeast Massachusetts, and southern Connecticut, where this system will be much more of a sloppy mix. Cape Ann in northeast Massachusetts is also in the 3-5″ zone.

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I’ll have more on this later today!
-Nathan

11/22/19

Good morning!

With cloudy skies, and a chance of afternoon showers, expect a high around 53, with a southwest wind at 10-15 mph, with gusts of 20-30 mph at times.

Tonight will have clearing skies, a low around 26, and a west wind of 5-15 mph, and gusts of 20-30 mph at times.

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and 45, with a west wind near 5 mph.

Have a great day!
-Nathan